U.S. stocks feel like they’ve bottomed, but crypto still feels like it’s not quite there.
The RSI14 for both the NDX and NVDA has fallen below 30.
The last time the NDX’s RSI was this low was at the end of March 2026, when the U.S. and Iran went to war. For NVDA, it was the tariff war in April 2025.
Even NVDA’s daily RSI has diverged. RSI divergences are rare in U.S. stocks; most of the time, they move in sync.
But Brother Feng still didn’t dare buy NVDA. He’s not afraid of a mistress—he’s afraid the mistress might actually be a spy—so he bought a bit of QQQ instead.
As for crypto, it still feels like it’s not quite there, mainly because although funds are flowing into USDC and USDT, the inflows are small.
But I also don’t think BTC’s low will be extremely low. Every time it drops, people in the group start calling for $30,000, $49,000… This is Jensen Huang cheating, not a Bitcoin fork… The impact of a non-liquidity-related negative catalyst is limited.
Brother Feng can’t think of any major liquidity-related negative catalysts coming up. A rate hike in December is already expected, and even one more hike in Q1 next year wouldn’t be that surprising. U.S. Treasuries have risen a bit recently, Trump has softened his stance toward Iran, and oil prices fell quite a bit today. There could be a rebound in U.S.-Iran tensions and oil prices, but surely it wouldn’t trigger some huge black swan event, right?
The RSI14 for both the NDX and NVDA has fallen below 30.
The last time the NDX’s RSI was this low was at the end of March 2026, when the U.S. and Iran went to war. For NVDA, it was the tariff war in April 2025.
Even NVDA’s daily RSI has diverged. RSI divergences are rare in U.S. stocks; most of the time, they move in sync.
But Brother Feng still didn’t dare buy NVDA. He’s not afraid of a mistress—he’s afraid the mistress might actually be a spy—so he bought a bit of QQQ instead.
As for crypto, it still feels like it’s not quite there, mainly because although funds are flowing into USDC and USDT, the inflows are small.
But I also don’t think BTC’s low will be extremely low. Every time it drops, people in the group start calling for $30,000, $49,000… This is Jensen Huang cheating, not a Bitcoin fork… The impact of a non-liquidity-related negative catalyst is limited.
Brother Feng can’t think of any major liquidity-related negative catalysts coming up. A rate hike in December is already expected, and even one more hike in Q1 next year wouldn’t be that surprising. U.S. Treasuries have risen a bit recently, Trump has softened his stance toward Iran, and oil prices fell quite a bit today. There could be a rebound in U.S.-Iran tensions and oil prices, but surely it wouldn’t trigger some huge black swan event, right?
