The weekly candle closed below the 50-week moving average for the first time since early September.
I see this as a test of the level, not a verdict on the trend. Three reasons: five straight weeks of declines, but this week’s drop was only a little over 4%, so the pace is slowing; the weekend wick dipped lower, but the price recovered within two hours; and the sentiment indicator entered the fear zone, so those who were going to panic have already panicked.
The uncertainty is trading volume. A breakdown on high volume and one on low volume are two very different things. I haven’t finished analyzing this week’s volume, so I’m not calling a direction yet.
Here’s what would invalidate this view: if the price doesn’t close back above the moving average within a week, this assessment is void. I’ll then look to the lower end of the range, and treat the preceding rally as resistance. $BTC
I see this as a test of the level, not a verdict on the trend. Three reasons: five straight weeks of declines, but this week’s drop was only a little over 4%, so the pace is slowing; the weekend wick dipped lower, but the price recovered within two hours; and the sentiment indicator entered the fear zone, so those who were going to panic have already panicked.
The uncertainty is trading volume. A breakdown on high volume and one on low volume are two very different things. I haven’t finished analyzing this week’s volume, so I’m not calling a direction yet.
Here’s what would invalidate this view: if the price doesn’t close back above the moving average within a week, this assessment is void. I’ll then look to the lower end of the range, and treat the preceding rally as resistance. $BTC