BTC: Short-Term Holder MVRV
Short-term holders as a whole remain slightly below their cost basis, with the structure in the “Below 1.0 · Second-Test Watch” phase.
As of 2026-11-08, STH-MVRV stands at 0.9883, approximately -1.17% from the 1.0 breakeven level, with a 7-day change of -0.0426. This corresponds to BTC at approximately $74,398 and a short-term holder cost basis of approximately $75,857. The first test reached a low of approximately 0.687 (2026-02-05), followed by a rebound to approximately 1.042. The second test reached a low of approximately 0.811 (2026-06-05), which the page labels as an ongoing double-test watch.
How should you read this indicator? STH-MVRV is the market price divided by the realized price of coins held for less than 155 days: below 1.0 indicates that short-term holders are collectively at an unrealized loss, while above 1.0 indicates a recovery in their cost basis. Historically, recovery periods often feature a “double test” shakeout, with two dips below 1.0 followed by a reclaim. Public comparisons include the two complete double-test structures in 2019 and 2023.
A double test followed by a reclaim of 1.0 can serve as cyclical evidence of a recovery in coin holders’ positions, but it is not by itself a signal confirming the start of a major uptrend. If the metric falls below 1.0 again, or spot demand does not recover in tandem, further validation against long-term holder behavior, liquidity, and cost-basis models is still needed. The dashed-line scenario on the chart is not a price forecast.
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$BTC
Short-term holders as a whole remain slightly below their cost basis, with the structure in the “Below 1.0 · Second-Test Watch” phase.
As of 2026-11-08, STH-MVRV stands at 0.9883, approximately -1.17% from the 1.0 breakeven level, with a 7-day change of -0.0426. This corresponds to BTC at approximately $74,398 and a short-term holder cost basis of approximately $75,857. The first test reached a low of approximately 0.687 (2026-02-05), followed by a rebound to approximately 1.042. The second test reached a low of approximately 0.811 (2026-06-05), which the page labels as an ongoing double-test watch.
How should you read this indicator? STH-MVRV is the market price divided by the realized price of coins held for less than 155 days: below 1.0 indicates that short-term holders are collectively at an unrealized loss, while above 1.0 indicates a recovery in their cost basis. Historically, recovery periods often feature a “double test” shakeout, with two dips below 1.0 followed by a reclaim. Public comparisons include the two complete double-test structures in 2019 and 2023.
A double test followed by a reclaim of 1.0 can serve as cyclical evidence of a recovery in coin holders’ positions, but it is not by itself a signal confirming the start of a major uptrend. If the metric falls below 1.0 again, or spot demand does not recover in tandem, further validation against long-term holder behavior, liquidity, and cost-basis models is still needed. The dashed-line scenario on the chart is not a price forecast.
More curated on-chain cycle indicators
Portal: https://welinkbtc-onchainmain.xyz/
Understand market cycles like a professional analyst
$BTC
