The cryptocurrency market today (November 9, 2026) is in a “liquidation-driven downturn” phase, not a new structural collapse. The full picture: #Bitcoin Bitcoin is testing the 50-week moving average at around $75,500 (the last major support for the uptrend), and Ethereum is under heavier selling pressure, while a forced liquidation cycle (Long Squeeze) has pushed the market to its lowest levels since August.
🔻 First: Why is the market falling? (Pressuring factors)
1. #ETF flows: the largest institutional outflows since June
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $12.82 billion in net outflows between November 2 and 6 — their largest weekly outflow since June, and the seventh-largest since their launch in January 2024. Black..Rock (#IBIT ) alone lost about $12.1 billion, partly offset by a $42.8 million inflow to Fidelity (#FBTC ). The result: 2026 flows turned negative on a net basis (-$914 million) for the first time this year. Ethereum ETFs saw their sixth consecutive week of outflows (-$365.3 million), with 2026 net flows negative at -$405.6 million.
2. Macroeconomic environment: “no escape” from rate hikes
The strong U.S. jobs report (October) raised the odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December to ~80%. This week brings a double dose of inflation data: CPI on Tuesday (forecast at 3.6% year-over-year), then PPI on Friday, alongside 17 Fed speaker events. Any reading above expectations will strengthen the tightening scenario and weigh on risk assets.
3. Regulatory and security shock: elections + Binance hack
The Democrats’ midterm election win raised concerns about tighter crypto regulation. The fallout from the Binance hack (October, ~$6.3 billion stolen) adds to this, along with ongoing uncertainty about the fate of the unfrozen assets. On the other hand, there is a positive signal: Coinbase received a national trust bank charter from #OCC (effective November 6), but the market ignored it amid selling pressure.
4. Sentiment: from “extreme fear” to “fear” (but no recovery)
The Fear & Greed Index is at 30 (Fear), up from 25 (Extreme Fear) on Saturday, but still far from neutral (50). The 30-day average is 48, meaning the recent decline is what pushed the index lower, rather than persistent pessimism.
🔹 Second: Market structure — where do we stand technically?
Bitcoin (BTC): testing its “last support” on the weekly timeframe
Current price ~ $74,800**, after a sharp drop to **$73,510 in the morning, followed by a slight rebound. Structure:
· Critical support: $75,500** = **50-week moving average. Analyst **Doctor Profit** considers it the “last major support” — a weekly break below it invalidates the bullish outlook and targets **$68,000–$69,000 (Fibonacci Golden Pocket).
· Next support: $73,000** (midpoint of the 3-day channel), then **$71,000 (van de Poppe’s target if $75,000 isn’t reclaimed), then $60,000 (the channel’s lower boundary, according to Ali Martinez).
· Resistance: first reclaim $76,000**, then **$78,000. Only a move back above $83,000–$85,000 would cancel the medium-term bearish scenario.
Ethereum (ETH): structurally weaker than BTC
Price ~ $2,120–$2,140** (down 5%+), after breaking below major support at **$2,170–$2,220. The structure is more fragile:
· Psychological support: $2,000**. A break below opens the way to **$1,900–$1,980 (a major daily buying zone).
· Alternative target: $1,963 (technical pattern) if selling continues.
· Resistance: reclaiming $2,220** could allow a rebound to **$2,280–$2,360.
Altcoins: no “altseason” — everything is falling
Altcoin Season Index at 37–40 (threshold: 75), with BTC dominance at 60.3%. Only 25–35% of altcoins have outperformed BTC over the past 90 days. This means liquidity isn’t rotating into altcoins; it’s leaving the market as a whole. Current prices: SOL $86** (-2.7%), **XRP $1.09 (-5.6%), BNB $682 (-1.6%).
⚖️ Third: Liquidations and leverage — the “fuel” for the decline
This isn’t a normal wave of selling, but a forced liquidation spiral:
· $1.04 billion in liquidations over 24 hours, 90.1% of them Long positions, affecting 156,164 traders. In just the four hours before morning, $803 million was liquidated, mostly Longs.
· Open interest (OI) is falling: Ethereum OI -8.14%, and Bitcoin -3.02%. This means positions are being closed, not added — in other words, the decline is driven by traders being forced out, not by new Short positions being built.
· Funding rate: ETH has turned negative (-0.0079%, meaning sellers pay buyers), while BTC remains positive (+0.0036%). This divergence means selling pressure on ETH is more intense, but it may precede a “mechanical rebound” (Short Covering).
Mechanical takeaway: this is a Deleveraging decline (forced reduction of leverage), not necessarily a structural reversal. But it doesn’t rule out further declines if negative ETF flows continue.
📊 Fourth: On-chain data — early but unconfirmed “bottom signals”
· STH-SOPR = 0.99: Short-term holders are selling at a slight loss. Historically, local bottoms form when this indicator reaches 0.95–0.97 (deeper panic selling). We’re close, but not there yet.
· MVRV = 1.40: The market is still in aggregate unrealized profit, but the margin is slim. This isn’t a “cycle bottom” (which requires MVRV < 1), but a correction within a bull cycle.
· Negative CVD: Since October 14, 105,300 BTC in net market sell orders — sellers are in control.
· Stablecoin reserves on exchanges: down 34%, from $75 billion (April) to $49.7 billion (November). This means there’s less buying power on exchanges, but it doesn’t necessarily mean funds have left the market (they may be in DeFi or personal wallets).
🎯 Fifth: Scenarios and directional outlook
📉 Base-case scenario (bearish — most likely in the short term)
Rationale: negative ETF flows + CPI higher than expected + weekly break below $75,500 = continued pressure.
· First stop: $73,000** (mid-channel). A break below opens the way to **$71,000, then $68,000–$69,000.
· Invalidation signal: weekly close above $76,000 + a halt in ETF outflows.
📈 Alternative scenario (mechanical rebound — possible, but not a “reversal”)
Rationale: heavy Long liquidations + negative ETH funding rate + Fear Index at 30 = a potential “Short Covering” rebound.
· Condition: CPI data below expectations (3.4% or lower) on Tuesday.
· Target: $78,000** first, then **$80,000. But without a break above $83,000–$85,000, the medium-term trend remains bearish.
⚠️ Risk management in this environment
1. Avoid high leverage: volatility is elevated (daily ATR ~ $2,188 for BTC), and any leverage above 2x is at risk of liquidation.
2. Position size: ≤1% of capital per trade.
3. Daily monitoring: ETF flows (Farside) are the most important indicator of a trend shift. An end to the outflows = the first sign of stability.
4. Don’t “try to catch the bottom” before confirmation: wait for a daily close above $76,000 or an STH-SOPR signal < 0.97 (panic selling) before opening any long position.
💎 Executive summary
The market is at a “critical test” moment: Bitcoin is at its **last major weekly support ($75,500)**, and forced liquidations are the direct driver of the decline, not strategic selling by holders. The **short-term trend is bearish** until there’s a signal that ETF outflows have stopped or inflation data comes in weaker than expected. The **long-term trend** (above $68,000–$69,000) has not officially broken, but is in a critical defensive position. Best approach: wait — don’t buy at support before confirmation, and don’t sell at the bottom after it’s too late. Tuesday’s CPI is the first decisive test.
