#cpi前瞻，12月利率走向迎关键考验
Tomorrow night at 21:30: October CPI, the last inflation report before the December rate decision
How important is this report?
October nonfarm payrolls rose by 165,000 and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, directly pushing the probability of a December rate hike to around 80%. The market now expects the Fed could still raise rates twice more in this cycle, by 25 basis points each time.
ING’s forecast is straightforward: both headline and core CPI could rise 0.3% month over month—enough to make a December rate hike the most likely outcome.
Unless October CPI comes in well below expectations, or the November jobs report on December 4 shows a clear slowdown, the market will have fully priced in a 25-basis-point hike by next month’s policy meeting.
CPI doesn’t need to be off the charts. As long as it holds steady at 0.3% month over month, a December rate hike will be all but certain.
We’ll find out tomorrow night.
Tomorrow night at 21:30: October CPI, the last inflation report before the December rate decision
How important is this report?
October nonfarm payrolls rose by 165,000 and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, directly pushing the probability of a December rate hike to around 80%. The market now expects the Fed could still raise rates twice more in this cycle, by 25 basis points each time.
ING’s forecast is straightforward: both headline and core CPI could rise 0.3% month over month—enough to make a December rate hike the most likely outcome.
Unless October CPI comes in well below expectations, or the November jobs report on December 4 shows a clear slowdown, the market will have fully priced in a 25-basis-point hike by next month’s policy meeting.
CPI doesn’t need to be off the charts. As long as it holds steady at 0.3% month over month, a December rate hike will be all but certain.
We’ll find out tomorrow night.
