$BTC 11.09 Outlook on the future trend
Traders should guard against a cascading BTC drop to 63000 that could liquidate their positions. I’ll take profit on all three of my short positions at 63000.
Looking at the daily chart, BTC’s rise from the 62800 low to -78000 has been very smooth. You could say this stretch is a vacuum zone, so a drop below 73000 is likely to be just as smooth, with a strong chance of cascading down to 63000.
Looking at the liquidation map, the higher-timeframe map shows a large number of long liquidation positions in the 60000–63000 range. Liquidation zones can attract price, but they can’t determine where it goes. When they align with the trend, however, their accuracy can be very high.
Looking at price action, after BTC fell through the previous candle that surged above 80000, it gave a strong follow-through signal. That’s bearish price action.
So I’m continuing to hold my short positions. If I didn’t have any positions today at this level, I’d be very cautious, for two reasons.
BTC has already fallen from 84500 to 73500. If the target is above 62000, the move is already halfway done. If you want to bet on a move down to 60000, placing a stop loss is very difficult. For 10000 points of potential profit, a 2:1 risk-reward ratio means your stop would need to be 5000 points away.
If BTC starts to rebound here, traders chasing the short will have a rough time.
So it comes down to your risk tolerance. If it were me, I’d place a short in the 76500–77000 range, where liquidation levels and the price pattern create resistance. Even at these levels, BTC would have to cooperate. If you’d traded the whole move from 87000 to 74000, you’d find that shorting either leaves you thousands of points underwater or gives you no opportunity at all.
73000 is the last support for the bulls. If it breaks, I’m only looking at 63000. If you’re planning to go long, be prepared—don’t let an extreme move liquidate you. As long as you’re in the market, there will always be opportunities.
Traders should guard against a cascading BTC drop to 63000 that could liquidate their positions. I’ll take profit on all three of my short positions at 63000.
Looking at the daily chart, BTC’s rise from the 62800 low to -78000 has been very smooth. You could say this stretch is a vacuum zone, so a drop below 73000 is likely to be just as smooth, with a strong chance of cascading down to 63000.
Looking at the liquidation map, the higher-timeframe map shows a large number of long liquidation positions in the 60000–63000 range. Liquidation zones can attract price, but they can’t determine where it goes. When they align with the trend, however, their accuracy can be very high.
Looking at price action, after BTC fell through the previous candle that surged above 80000, it gave a strong follow-through signal. That’s bearish price action.
So I’m continuing to hold my short positions. If I didn’t have any positions today at this level, I’d be very cautious, for two reasons.
BTC has already fallen from 84500 to 73500. If the target is above 62000, the move is already halfway done. If you want to bet on a move down to 60000, placing a stop loss is very difficult. For 10000 points of potential profit, a 2:1 risk-reward ratio means your stop would need to be 5000 points away.
If BTC starts to rebound here, traders chasing the short will have a rough time.
So it comes down to your risk tolerance. If it were me, I’d place a short in the 76500–77000 range, where liquidation levels and the price pattern create resistance. Even at these levels, BTC would have to cooperate. If you’d traded the whole move from 87000 to 74000, you’d find that shorting either leaves you thousands of points underwater or gives you no opportunity at all.
73000 is the last support for the bulls. If it breaks, I’m only looking at 63000. If you’re planning to go long, be prepared—don’t let an extreme move liquidate you. As long as you’re in the market, there will always be opportunities.
