Myth vs data: "If VIX tops 30, get out of stocks." Since 1995, buying on those days returned +22% on average one year later.
→ On 609 of 700 days, the S&P 500 was higher a year later; an ordinary day returned +10%
→ VIX above 40: +33%, with 199 of 207 days higher
→ But buying in March 2008 at VIX 31 meant −41% a year later
I think fear peaks have usually been a buying zone, not a selling one. Worst case: if the decline keeps going after VIX tops 30, as in 2008, the price you thought was "cheap" gets even cheaper; I'm watching.
#Stocks #Selloff
Watching: $SPY $QQQ $VIXY
→ On 609 of 700 days, the S&P 500 was higher a year later; an ordinary day returned +10%
→ VIX above 40: +33%, with 199 of 207 days higher
→ But buying in March 2008 at VIX 31 meant −41% a year later
I think fear peaks have usually been a buying zone, not a selling one. Worst case: if the decline keeps going after VIX tops 30, as in 2008, the price you thought was "cheap" gets even cheaper; I'm watching.
#Stocks #Selloff
Watching: $SPY $QQQ $VIXY
