Gold prices that shrugged off stronger-than-expected payrolls surged back above $4,100 on Monday: Spot gold rose more than 1% in Asian trading, reaching an intraday high of $4,134.27 and reclaiming the $4,100 mark. Spot silver followed, up 2.6% to $53.27. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the dollar’s performance, fell 0.1%, while Brent crude slipped to around $97.69.
Friday’s bearish candle should have pushed gold lower: The U.S. October nonfarm payrolls report showed 165,000 jobs added, far above expectations of 65,000. The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, while the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields both rose. Gold briefly fell to around $4,033 intraday. But it stabilized after closing only lower at around $4,065, and Monday’s open erased all of Friday’s losses. More importantly, gold rose 5% over the week, its biggest weekly gain since late August. From its October 30 low of $3,870.1, it had rebounded to last Thursday’s high of $4,147.06 in less than two weeks.
Two opposing forces are pulling the market in different directions. On one side, political uncertainty is supporting gold: After Democrats won both chambers in the U.S. midterm elections, markets bet that Washington’s talks with Iran would ease tensions and that the war premium would fade. Brent crude’s plunge of more than 16% in a week reflects the same dynamic from the other side: Safe-haven funds moved out of oil, with some flowing into gold. On the other side, expectations of Fed rate hikes are weighing on gold. After the stronger-than-expected payrolls report, the probability of a rate hike in December returned to around 78%, and U.S. Treasury yields remained elevated. Gold itself pays no interest, so the higher rates rise, the greater the opportunity cost of holding it—and the more its rally is naturally capped.
Gold’s rise rather than fall suggests the market is treating $4,000 as a floor. To the upside, the first level to watch is last Thursday’s high of $4,147.06. If gold holds above it, the next target is the $4,200–$4,230 range, followed by the $4,300 mark. To the downside, the first question is whether $4,100 can hold. If it breaks, gold could retest the $4,050–$4,027 range, with the psychological $4,000 level below that. Silver’s concurrent rise to $53.27 suggests this is not just a gold story: The entire precious-metals sector is being supported by safe-haven flows.
There are three risks to watch. First, the U.S. October Consumer Price Index is due Tuesday at 21:30 Beijing time. Core CPI is expected to rise 0.2% month over month; if it comes in at 0.3% or higher, rate-hike expectations could heat up again, sending gold back toward $4,050. Second, if a deal is reached in the Iran talks and the war premium continues to unwind, some safe-haven buying could disappear. Third, if U.S. Treasury yields keep rising, the opportunity cost of holding gold will weigh more heavily on prices. If gold cannot hold above $4,100, don’t rush to chase it higher.
#黄金 #Federal Reserve
Friday’s bearish candle should have pushed gold lower: The U.S. October nonfarm payrolls report showed 165,000 jobs added, far above expectations of 65,000. The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, while the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields both rose. Gold briefly fell to around $4,033 intraday. But it stabilized after closing only lower at around $4,065, and Monday’s open erased all of Friday’s losses. More importantly, gold rose 5% over the week, its biggest weekly gain since late August. From its October 30 low of $3,870.1, it had rebounded to last Thursday’s high of $4,147.06 in less than two weeks.
Two opposing forces are pulling the market in different directions. On one side, political uncertainty is supporting gold: After Democrats won both chambers in the U.S. midterm elections, markets bet that Washington’s talks with Iran would ease tensions and that the war premium would fade. Brent crude’s plunge of more than 16% in a week reflects the same dynamic from the other side: Safe-haven funds moved out of oil, with some flowing into gold. On the other side, expectations of Fed rate hikes are weighing on gold. After the stronger-than-expected payrolls report, the probability of a rate hike in December returned to around 78%, and U.S. Treasury yields remained elevated. Gold itself pays no interest, so the higher rates rise, the greater the opportunity cost of holding it—and the more its rally is naturally capped.
Gold’s rise rather than fall suggests the market is treating $4,000 as a floor. To the upside, the first level to watch is last Thursday’s high of $4,147.06. If gold holds above it, the next target is the $4,200–$4,230 range, followed by the $4,300 mark. To the downside, the first question is whether $4,100 can hold. If it breaks, gold could retest the $4,050–$4,027 range, with the psychological $4,000 level below that. Silver’s concurrent rise to $53.27 suggests this is not just a gold story: The entire precious-metals sector is being supported by safe-haven flows.
There are three risks to watch. First, the U.S. October Consumer Price Index is due Tuesday at 21:30 Beijing time. Core CPI is expected to rise 0.2% month over month; if it comes in at 0.3% or higher, rate-hike expectations could heat up again, sending gold back toward $4,050. Second, if a deal is reached in the Iran talks and the war premium continues to unwind, some safe-haven buying could disappear. Third, if U.S. Treasury yields keep rising, the opportunity cost of holding gold will weigh more heavily on prices. If gold cannot hold above $4,100, don’t rush to chase it higher.
#黄金 #Federal Reserve