The bounce lasted just one candle; Bitcoin and Ethereum remain biased bearish on the 4-hour chart. The key thing to watch this time is that buyers failed to push the price higher after the lower wick, and during the session it instead retreated to the lows following the sharp drop.
After Bitcoin plunged through the platform around 76,000, the next 4-hour candle rebounded to a high of 75564 and eventually closed at 74826.5, almost back at its opening level. Price did recover some ground along the way, but by the time the candle closed, little of the gain remained. Volume also fell to less than half that of the sharp-drop candle. This suggests the bounce after the sell-off has yet to develop into sustained upward momentum, while the former consolidation platform continues to act as overhead resistance.
In my previous post, I said 74818 was slightly above the previous low of 74800, and that comparison was correct. The latest full candle close is still above 74800.1, but the intraday price has already fallen below 74,000, crossing back through that old low. We need to be precise here: we cannot yet say the 4-hour candle has closed below it, but we also can’t keep treating 74800 as firm support beneath price. The part of the lower wick that recovered is being eaten away again.
Ethereum held on to slightly more of its bounce, closing up from 2126.61 to 2139.51, but its high reached only 2159.26—not even the key previous low at 2171.52. It then fell back below 2100 during the session, so its bounce also failed to follow through. Bitcoin’s previous full candle close was still near the old low, while Ethereum has yet to return to the structure it broke down from. Both coins are therefore biased bearish, and Ethereum’s recovery is lagging further behind. There is not yet enough evidence to describe this pullback as a bottom that has formed.
Direction aside, I wouldn’t chase shorts right at the lows after a sharp drop. First, I’m watching 73385 below for Bitcoin and 2051.9 for Ethereum. These are the lows already reached during this sharp decline, and it’s worth watching to see whether buyers step in, but they haven’t been tested repeatedly enough to call them established bottoms. If price keeps approaching these levels intraday, chasing a short means facing the risk of another bounce from the lows. On the other hand, price being near a low is not, by itself, enough reason to go long.
I’d rather wait for a rebound and see whether the old support levels have turned into resistance. For Bitcoin, first watch whether it can reclaim 74800.1, then the 75690.1–76260 zone around the old lows and platform. For Ethereum, the key area is 2171.52–2204.98. A rebound that gets rejected at these levels would better fit the current bearish structure. Price is still some distance from resistance, so there’s no need to turn “wait for a rebound” into “short right now.”
The broader levels that would change my view remain 81199.9 for Bitcoin and 2451.13 for Ethereum; both rebound highs can also be identified independently in the 4-hour history for this move. Only a 4-hour close back above each level would invalidate this round of bearish bias. These are levels for assessing direction, not stop-losses to stubbornly hold onto a short against. For now, the focus is on whether buying support at the lows can continue, and how far the next rebound can go.
$BTC $ETH
After Bitcoin plunged through the platform around 76,000, the next 4-hour candle rebounded to a high of 75564 and eventually closed at 74826.5, almost back at its opening level. Price did recover some ground along the way, but by the time the candle closed, little of the gain remained. Volume also fell to less than half that of the sharp-drop candle. This suggests the bounce after the sell-off has yet to develop into sustained upward momentum, while the former consolidation platform continues to act as overhead resistance.
In my previous post, I said 74818 was slightly above the previous low of 74800, and that comparison was correct. The latest full candle close is still above 74800.1, but the intraday price has already fallen below 74,000, crossing back through that old low. We need to be precise here: we cannot yet say the 4-hour candle has closed below it, but we also can’t keep treating 74800 as firm support beneath price. The part of the lower wick that recovered is being eaten away again.
Ethereum held on to slightly more of its bounce, closing up from 2126.61 to 2139.51, but its high reached only 2159.26—not even the key previous low at 2171.52. It then fell back below 2100 during the session, so its bounce also failed to follow through. Bitcoin’s previous full candle close was still near the old low, while Ethereum has yet to return to the structure it broke down from. Both coins are therefore biased bearish, and Ethereum’s recovery is lagging further behind. There is not yet enough evidence to describe this pullback as a bottom that has formed.
Direction aside, I wouldn’t chase shorts right at the lows after a sharp drop. First, I’m watching 73385 below for Bitcoin and 2051.9 for Ethereum. These are the lows already reached during this sharp decline, and it’s worth watching to see whether buyers step in, but they haven’t been tested repeatedly enough to call them established bottoms. If price keeps approaching these levels intraday, chasing a short means facing the risk of another bounce from the lows. On the other hand, price being near a low is not, by itself, enough reason to go long.
I’d rather wait for a rebound and see whether the old support levels have turned into resistance. For Bitcoin, first watch whether it can reclaim 74800.1, then the 75690.1–76260 zone around the old lows and platform. For Ethereum, the key area is 2171.52–2204.98. A rebound that gets rejected at these levels would better fit the current bearish structure. Price is still some distance from resistance, so there’s no need to turn “wait for a rebound” into “short right now.”
The broader levels that would change my view remain 81199.9 for Bitcoin and 2451.13 for Ethereum; both rebound highs can also be identified independently in the 4-hour history for this move. Only a 4-hour close back above each level would invalidate this round of bearish bias. These are levels for assessing direction, not stop-losses to stubbornly hold onto a short against. For now, the focus is on whether buying support at the lows can continue, and how far the next rebound can go.
$BTC $ETH