【November 9 | Global Market News and Data Analysis】
1. This week’s macro outlook: Jensen Huang’s alleged affair could become an AI “black swan”; U.S. CPI data and neocloud company earnings are worth watching.
2. The U.S. Secretary of State said Iran’s conditions are completely unacceptable, and the two sides remain far from a breakthrough agreement.
3. Analysis: After news of Jensen Huang’s alleged affair broke, he may step down as NVIDIA CEO and devote considerable energy to family matters.
4. Analysis: On-chain data reveals genuine fear in BTC: long-term holders are “capitulating,” while panic selling is accelerating the market cleanup.
U.S. stocks faced a series of tests this week. NVIDIA came under selling pressure amid a personal scandal involving its founder, Jensen Huang, at one point plunging more than 4% intraday. U.S. inflation and employment data were then released, alongside a flurry of remarks from Fed officials, pushing the market-implied odds of a December rate hike to around 80%. Meanwhile, a packed earnings season for AI companies, Anthropic’s IPO roadshow, and geopolitical negotiations involving the U.S., Russia, Ukraine, and others have all become important variables influencing risk assets.
Turning to crypto markets, on-chain intelligence shows that anxiety among long-term holders is rising markedly. On November 5, their realized losses transferred to exchanges reached as high as $139 million—an unusually large-scale exit for this year—suggesting that coins are rapidly changing hands and being cleared out of long-term holders’ portfolios. By contrast, most short-term holders, whose cost basis generally sits around $75,000–$76,000, close to the current breakeven level, have opted to wait and see. Overall, the current wave of fear has spread mainly due to external emotional shocks and has not triggered a material increase in selling pressure. For Bitcoin, a recovery in sentiment hinges on whether the market can gradually confirm that reality is not as bleak as expected; if so, safe-haven capital may begin to flow back in.
1. This week’s macro outlook: Jensen Huang’s alleged affair could become an AI “black swan”; U.S. CPI data and neocloud company earnings are worth watching.
2. The U.S. Secretary of State said Iran’s conditions are completely unacceptable, and the two sides remain far from a breakthrough agreement.
3. Analysis: After news of Jensen Huang’s alleged affair broke, he may step down as NVIDIA CEO and devote considerable energy to family matters.
4. Analysis: On-chain data reveals genuine fear in BTC: long-term holders are “capitulating,” while panic selling is accelerating the market cleanup.
U.S. stocks faced a series of tests this week. NVIDIA came under selling pressure amid a personal scandal involving its founder, Jensen Huang, at one point plunging more than 4% intraday. U.S. inflation and employment data were then released, alongside a flurry of remarks from Fed officials, pushing the market-implied odds of a December rate hike to around 80%. Meanwhile, a packed earnings season for AI companies, Anthropic’s IPO roadshow, and geopolitical negotiations involving the U.S., Russia, Ukraine, and others have all become important variables influencing risk assets.
Turning to crypto markets, on-chain intelligence shows that anxiety among long-term holders is rising markedly. On November 5, their realized losses transferred to exchanges reached as high as $139 million—an unusually large-scale exit for this year—suggesting that coins are rapidly changing hands and being cleared out of long-term holders’ portfolios. By contrast, most short-term holders, whose cost basis generally sits around $75,000–$76,000, close to the current breakeven level, have opted to wait and see. Overall, the current wave of fear has spread mainly due to external emotional shocks and has not triggered a material increase in selling pressure. For Bitcoin, a recovery in sentiment hinges on whether the market can gradually confirm that reality is not as bleak as expected; if so, safe-haven capital may begin to flow back in.
