A straight flush through the 76K range! Does one lower wick mean we've hit bottom?
Bitcoin held sideways around 76K for more than a dozen 4-hour candles. I’m sure plenty of people were betting it would form a base and bounce here. But the latest bearish candle came with 2.56 times the trading volume and smashed straight through this consolidation range.
A lot of people saw price dip to a low, bounce partway back, and close at 74818—just barely above the previous low of 74800—and thought, 'The breakdown failed; the shakeout is over.' But you can’t judge the chart by a single wick. You have to look at what structure it broke. Although price just managed to avoid closing below 74800, the platform where it had traded sideways around 76K for more than a dozen candles has been decisively lost. Price is now grinding back toward 75K, without even reclaiming the lower edge of the old range. A lower wick only shows that buyers stepped in to catch some of the panic selling. There hasn’t even been a decent bullish follow-through candle since. Calling a bottom now seems overly optimistic.
Ethereum looks even more decisive—and weaker—than Bitcoin. This move blasted through the repeatedly defended 2205 area on heavy volume, and also broke below the previous low at 2172. The latest price is around 2127. Bitcoin at least managed to cling to the edge of its previous low; Ethereum has lost even that last bit of cover, and its intraday bounce didn’t even reach 2172.
So how should we handle things at this level?
On the 4-hour chart, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are clearly bearish. But after that sharp, high-volume drop, I wouldn’t chase shorts here. Sharp sell-offs are often followed by a technical bounce, and if you jump in now, even a small rebound could easily throw you off emotionally.
For now, I’m waiting for just one thing: to see how price reacts when old support turns into resistance on a bounce.
For Bitcoin, watch 75,700–76,300 closely. This was the old low and a high-volume consolidation zone; now it’s overhead supply from trapped buyers. If the rebound can’t reclaim this area and meets clear resistance, that would be the signal to continue looking lower with the trend.
For Ethereum, watch 2172–2205. This area held as support for a long time, but it’s broken now. The first thing to watch on a rebound is whether it acts as resistance. Don’t rush to call a reversal unless price gets back above it.
When would I give up my bearish view? Only if Bitcoin can decisively reclaim 81199.9 on the 4-hour chart and Ethereum reclaims 2451.13, fully recovering the starting points of the previous declines. Until then, I’ll treat every rally as a bounce within a bearish trend.
After a sharp drop, a lower wick is the ultimate test of whether you can keep your hands off the trade. Some see this bounce around 75K as a golden buying opportunity; others see it as a pause before the next leg down. Which side are you leaning toward?
$BTC $ETH
Bitcoin held sideways around 76K for more than a dozen 4-hour candles. I’m sure plenty of people were betting it would form a base and bounce here. But the latest bearish candle came with 2.56 times the trading volume and smashed straight through this consolidation range.
A lot of people saw price dip to a low, bounce partway back, and close at 74818—just barely above the previous low of 74800—and thought, 'The breakdown failed; the shakeout is over.' But you can’t judge the chart by a single wick. You have to look at what structure it broke. Although price just managed to avoid closing below 74800, the platform where it had traded sideways around 76K for more than a dozen candles has been decisively lost. Price is now grinding back toward 75K, without even reclaiming the lower edge of the old range. A lower wick only shows that buyers stepped in to catch some of the panic selling. There hasn’t even been a decent bullish follow-through candle since. Calling a bottom now seems overly optimistic.
Ethereum looks even more decisive—and weaker—than Bitcoin. This move blasted through the repeatedly defended 2205 area on heavy volume, and also broke below the previous low at 2172. The latest price is around 2127. Bitcoin at least managed to cling to the edge of its previous low; Ethereum has lost even that last bit of cover, and its intraday bounce didn’t even reach 2172.
So how should we handle things at this level?
On the 4-hour chart, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are clearly bearish. But after that sharp, high-volume drop, I wouldn’t chase shorts here. Sharp sell-offs are often followed by a technical bounce, and if you jump in now, even a small rebound could easily throw you off emotionally.
For now, I’m waiting for just one thing: to see how price reacts when old support turns into resistance on a bounce.
For Bitcoin, watch 75,700–76,300 closely. This was the old low and a high-volume consolidation zone; now it’s overhead supply from trapped buyers. If the rebound can’t reclaim this area and meets clear resistance, that would be the signal to continue looking lower with the trend.
For Ethereum, watch 2172–2205. This area held as support for a long time, but it’s broken now. The first thing to watch on a rebound is whether it acts as resistance. Don’t rush to call a reversal unless price gets back above it.
When would I give up my bearish view? Only if Bitcoin can decisively reclaim 81199.9 on the 4-hour chart and Ethereum reclaims 2451.13, fully recovering the starting points of the previous declines. Until then, I’ll treat every rally as a bounce within a bearish trend.
After a sharp drop, a lower wick is the ultimate test of whether you can keep your hands off the trade. Some see this bounce around 75K as a golden buying opportunity; others see it as a pause before the next leg down. Which side are you leaning toward?
$BTC $ETH