BlockBeats News, November 9: On-chain analyst Murphy published an analysis using on-chain data to assess the true level of fear in the Bitcoin market. Murphy noted that on November 5, realized losses incurred by long-term holders transferring Bitcoin to exchanges (LTH-RLTE) reached $139 million. This figure was exceeded only during the most fearful periods of the past year, in February and June, indicating severe anxiety in the current market, with even long-term holders beginning to “capitulate” and sell. On the other hand, this often means that panic selling is being flushed out more quickly. By contrast, short-term holders are not “selling in a panic,” having completed most of their turnover earlier this year. Their average cost basis is currently around $75,000–$76,000, near the breakeven point at the current price, so most are choosing to hold and wait.

Overall, the absolute value of the 24-hour average on-chain realized losses remains high. Hit by both the Binance hack at the end of October and the US stock market crash on November 5, market confidence was shaken, directly triggering panic among long-term holders. Fortunately, however, the overall scale of realized losses has not continued to grow. Murphy believes investors are currently in a state of mind where they are “reluctant, yet have no choice but to sell at a loss.” A recovery in sentiment will require a catalyst: the gradual realization that the actual situation is not as bad as expected.