I got up this morning and checked the charts: BTC was back around 74,800.
It actually bounced once last night, climbing to 76,200, but couldn’t hold there. In the early hours, it was pushed back down to around 75,600.
I know this kind of price action all too well—buyers step in below, sellers hit it from above, and price gets ground back and forth within a range until you start questioning everything.
The problem isn’t the price; it’s the buying pressure.
CryptoQuant’s data is pretty sobering: the Short-Term Holder SOPR shows these holders are selling at a loss, negative spot demand is getting worse, and cumulative net selling pressure since October 14 is around 105,000 BTC.
Stablecoin reserves on exchanges are shrinking too. No new money is coming in from the sidelines, while existing money is flowing out.
On November 6, ETFs saw $410 million in net outflows in a single day. BlackRock alone had $400 million in redemptions.
The technical picture isn’t looking optimistic either.
The RSI has fallen to around 37. It’s definitely oversold, but oversold doesn’t mean the bottom is in—this month we’ve seen this same script play out several times already.
76,200 is the top of the range, and 75,500 is the bottom. A break either way could set the direction.
Looking further down, the 200-day moving average is around 73,200—that’s the bulls’ last fig leaf.
On top of that, bets on a December rate hike are still above 70%, so we can’t count on macro conditions to help in the short term.
Simply put, this market is missing a reason for anyone to make a big move with confidence.
Are you staying on the sidelines for now, or have you already started buying in batches?
$BTC $ETH
#市场观察 #比特币 #OnChainData
This is not investment advice. DYOR; trading involves risk.
It actually bounced once last night, climbing to 76,200, but couldn’t hold there. In the early hours, it was pushed back down to around 75,600.
I know this kind of price action all too well—buyers step in below, sellers hit it from above, and price gets ground back and forth within a range until you start questioning everything.
The problem isn’t the price; it’s the buying pressure.
CryptoQuant’s data is pretty sobering: the Short-Term Holder SOPR shows these holders are selling at a loss, negative spot demand is getting worse, and cumulative net selling pressure since October 14 is around 105,000 BTC.
Stablecoin reserves on exchanges are shrinking too. No new money is coming in from the sidelines, while existing money is flowing out.
On November 6, ETFs saw $410 million in net outflows in a single day. BlackRock alone had $400 million in redemptions.
The technical picture isn’t looking optimistic either.
The RSI has fallen to around 37. It’s definitely oversold, but oversold doesn’t mean the bottom is in—this month we’ve seen this same script play out several times already.
76,200 is the top of the range, and 75,500 is the bottom. A break either way could set the direction.
Looking further down, the 200-day moving average is around 73,200—that’s the bulls’ last fig leaf.
On top of that, bets on a December rate hike are still above 70%, so we can’t count on macro conditions to help in the short term.
Simply put, this market is missing a reason for anyone to make a big move with confidence.
Are you staying on the sidelines for now, or have you already started buying in batches?
$BTC $ETH
#市场观察 #比特币 #OnChainData
This is not investment advice. DYOR; trading involves risk.