Sentiment Daily: None of the three indicators has left fear territory, but divergence is emerging.
The CNN Fear & Greed Index is at 22, in Extreme Fear, unchanged from yesterday’s 22—the U.S. stock market is closed for the weekend, so the figure is still based on Friday’s close. A week ago it was at 26, down 4 points over the week. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX, the fear index) is at 25.64, also based on Friday’s close. That’s down about 9% from Thursday’s 28.09, but it remains above the 20-point threshold for high volatility. Fear has eased, but it hasn’t fully subsided. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is at 29, in the Fear category, up 1 point from yesterday’s 28. The sequence is 28→25→28→29. Last Saturday it briefly fell into Extreme Fear; after climbing for two days, it’s still 4 points short of leaving that zone.
As for prices: Bitcoin is around $74,850, down about 1.2% from yesterday’s 9:30 snapshot of around $75,780. It briefly fell to $73,708 over the weekend, a more-than-two-month low, and failed to hold $75,000. The S&P 500 is at 7,376.86 (+0.31% Friday), and the Nasdaq 100 is at 26,989.99 (+1.35% Friday). The markets are closed for the weekend, so these figures are still based on Friday’s close.
My view is that the worst of the sentiment slump may be passing, but it’s far too early to relax. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has climbed from 25 to 29 in two days, suggesting the peak of panic selling is behind us. But the CNN Fear & Greed Index is unchanged, and the VIX is still above 20, indicating that no one in the stock market dares to breathe easy just yet. Bitcoin’s drop below $75,000 was the biggest signal of the weekend—the crypto market failed to absorb any of the optimism built up by Friday’s chip rebound. The U.S. market open at 22:30 tonight is the first test: Nvidia is already down more than 2% in after-hours trading. Whether chip stocks can carry the baton for a second leg will directly determine whether the CNN Fear & Greed Index can climb out of Extreme Fear at Monday’s close. A real turning point will have to wait for October’s Consumer Price Index at 21:30 Beijing time on Tuesday. Sentiment can only mount a meaningful rebound if core month-over-month inflation comes in at 0.2% or lower; at 0.3% or higher, expectations for a December rate hike will heat up again, and fear will linger.
#情绪日报 #FearAndGreedIndex
The CNN Fear & Greed Index is at 22, in Extreme Fear, unchanged from yesterday’s 22—the U.S. stock market is closed for the weekend, so the figure is still based on Friday’s close. A week ago it was at 26, down 4 points over the week. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX, the fear index) is at 25.64, also based on Friday’s close. That’s down about 9% from Thursday’s 28.09, but it remains above the 20-point threshold for high volatility. Fear has eased, but it hasn’t fully subsided. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is at 29, in the Fear category, up 1 point from yesterday’s 28. The sequence is 28→25→28→29. Last Saturday it briefly fell into Extreme Fear; after climbing for two days, it’s still 4 points short of leaving that zone.
As for prices: Bitcoin is around $74,850, down about 1.2% from yesterday’s 9:30 snapshot of around $75,780. It briefly fell to $73,708 over the weekend, a more-than-two-month low, and failed to hold $75,000. The S&P 500 is at 7,376.86 (+0.31% Friday), and the Nasdaq 100 is at 26,989.99 (+1.35% Friday). The markets are closed for the weekend, so these figures are still based on Friday’s close.
My view is that the worst of the sentiment slump may be passing, but it’s far too early to relax. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has climbed from 25 to 29 in two days, suggesting the peak of panic selling is behind us. But the CNN Fear & Greed Index is unchanged, and the VIX is still above 20, indicating that no one in the stock market dares to breathe easy just yet. Bitcoin’s drop below $75,000 was the biggest signal of the weekend—the crypto market failed to absorb any of the optimism built up by Friday’s chip rebound. The U.S. market open at 22:30 tonight is the first test: Nvidia is already down more than 2% in after-hours trading. Whether chip stocks can carry the baton for a second leg will directly determine whether the CNN Fear & Greed Index can climb out of Extreme Fear at Monday’s close. A real turning point will have to wait for October’s Consumer Price Index at 21:30 Beijing time on Tuesday. Sentiment can only mount a meaningful rebound if core month-over-month inflation comes in at 0.2% or lower; at 0.3% or higher, expectations for a December rate hike will heat up again, and fear will linger.
#情绪日报 #FearAndGreedIndex
