I checked my phone first thing this morning
After the Democrats’ big midterm win,
prediction markets got called out too 👀
This Politico piece pulls no punches
It calls out Kalshi and Polymarket directly
Senator Jeff Merkley
and Representative Maxine Waters
are both criticizing the same thing:
that sensitive events like elections, wars, and assassinations
can also be turned into markets for betting
And they’re preparing legislation
Trading volume for election-related contracts this cycle
has already topped about $3 billion
Kalshi alone accounts for roughly $2.5 billion or more
The markets were pretty accurate, though
Kalshi priced the Democrats’ chances of winning the House
at around 93% to 94.5%
and their chances of winning the Senate at around 73.5% to 76%
Both outcomes came through
According to Kalshi’s own data,
of the first 487 races with decided outcomes,
the market favorite won 479
The Chinese-speaking crowd probably didn’t catch up until around 8 or 9 in the morning
The markets may be accurate,
but how regulators will step in is another matter
For now, just keep the numbers in mind
After the Democrats’ big midterm win,
prediction markets got called out too 👀
This Politico piece pulls no punches
It calls out Kalshi and Polymarket directly
Senator Jeff Merkley
and Representative Maxine Waters
are both criticizing the same thing:
that sensitive events like elections, wars, and assassinations
can also be turned into markets for betting
And they’re preparing legislation
Trading volume for election-related contracts this cycle
has already topped about $3 billion
Kalshi alone accounts for roughly $2.5 billion or more
The markets were pretty accurate, though
Kalshi priced the Democrats’ chances of winning the House
at around 93% to 94.5%
and their chances of winning the Senate at around 73.5% to 76%
Both outcomes came through
According to Kalshi’s own data,
of the first 487 races with decided outcomes,
the market favorite won 479
The Chinese-speaking crowd probably didn’t catch up until around 8 or 9 in the morning
The markets may be accurate,
but how regulators will step in is another matter
For now, just keep the numbers in mind
