The US dollar is strengthening again, and this time the pressure is arriving just as the crypto market is losing its footing.
Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding Stablecoins has broken below the $2.3 T support.
It is now at $2.2 T.
I don't think it's time to add to positions yet.
Market Context
The DXY's strengthening is in line with expectations, driven by the NFP data. The US dollar is now moving toward resistance at 102, and as long as it has room to rise, risk assets will remain under pressure.
More importantly, Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding Stablecoins (TotalES) has broken below the $2.3 T support line and is now trading around $2.2 T. This isn't weakness in a single asset, but weakness across the market as a whole—and that's a more serious signal than a single red candle on BTC.
Bearish pressure is likely to continue until the CPI data is released. The market also needs to fill the imbalance and low-volume areas left behind by August's sharp rally. Until both are resolved, any bounce could be just a pause, not a reversal.
Key Levels
1. 102 — DXY resistance: A break above this area would add further pressure on risk assets, including crypto.
2. $2.3 T — TotalES support: This level has already been broken. It now acts as resistance if the price tries to rise again.
3. $2.2 T — Current TotalES level: The area where the market is trying to hold. If this level also fails, there will be more room for a decline.
Possible Scenarios.
I haven't taken a strong directional bias yet. There's one thing I want to see first: how the market reacts when the CPI data is released on Tuesday, November 10.
If CPI comes in hotter than expected, the DXY could break above 102, and TotalES could lose $2.2 T. In that case, pressure on crypto would deepen.
Conversely, if CPI comes in cooler, the dollar could lose momentum, and TotalES could retest $2.3 T as resistance. But until that level is reclaimed, any rise is just a bounce.
My Take
The strengthening US dollar is adding pressure to the market. Combined with last Friday's global stock market crash, the impact is spreading across all risk assets—including crypto. The market is in a state of confusion as it waits for key data releases.
For that reason, I strongly advise against accumulating large amounts of assets right now. It's better to diversify and keep some room to enter the market once conditions become clearer.
A confused market isn't one to fight. It's one to wait out.