BTC: LTH/STH Cost Basis Ratio
The cost bases of long- and short-term holders are still converging, but the pace has entered the observation window for the “0.48 recovery phase.”
As of the daily reading on 2026-11-07, the LTH/STH cost basis ratio was 0.6427; the realized prices for long-term and short-term holders were $48,743 and $75,839, respectively. The 7-day and 30-day averages were 0.6434 and 0.6471, respectively, while the peak over the past year was approximately 0.7327. It has been 252 days since the ratio crossed above 0.48 on 2026-02-28.
How should you interpret this ratio? It compares the average cost basis of coins held for more than 155 days with those held for 155 days or less. A rising ratio indicates that long-term holders’ cost basis is catching up with that of short-term holders, and that the market is in a phase of coin turnover and cost-basis reconstruction. Historically, readings below 0.48 have often corresponded to deep accumulation. A recovery above 0.48 toward the cycle peak often occurs as cost-basis reconstruction progresses and the trend approaches a potential transition. However, this is a cycle-monitoring tool, not a standalone buy or sell signal.
Whether the ratio can continue rising and when a peak may occur should also be assessed alongside spot demand, liquidity, macroeconomic conditions, and price structure. A single reading should not be taken as proof that the trend has already reversed.
More selected on-chain cycle indicators
Portal: https://welinkbtc-onchainmain.xyz/
Understand cycles like a professional analyst
$BTC
The cost bases of long- and short-term holders are still converging, but the pace has entered the observation window for the “0.48 recovery phase.”
As of the daily reading on 2026-11-07, the LTH/STH cost basis ratio was 0.6427; the realized prices for long-term and short-term holders were $48,743 and $75,839, respectively. The 7-day and 30-day averages were 0.6434 and 0.6471, respectively, while the peak over the past year was approximately 0.7327. It has been 252 days since the ratio crossed above 0.48 on 2026-02-28.
How should you interpret this ratio? It compares the average cost basis of coins held for more than 155 days with those held for 155 days or less. A rising ratio indicates that long-term holders’ cost basis is catching up with that of short-term holders, and that the market is in a phase of coin turnover and cost-basis reconstruction. Historically, readings below 0.48 have often corresponded to deep accumulation. A recovery above 0.48 toward the cycle peak often occurs as cost-basis reconstruction progresses and the trend approaches a potential transition. However, this is a cycle-monitoring tool, not a standalone buy or sell signal.
Whether the ratio can continue rising and when a peak may occur should also be assessed alongside spot demand, liquidity, macroeconomic conditions, and price structure. A single reading should not be taken as proof that the trend has already reversed.
More selected on-chain cycle indicators
Portal: https://welinkbtc-onchainmain.xyz/
Understand cycles like a professional analyst
$BTC
