New export orders declined, freight growth also slowed, yet institutions are betting October exports will hit another record growth rate—Tuesday will tell.
The General Administration of Customs will release October trade data on Tuesday. First, just how strong was September?
Exports: $447.18 billion, up 36.3% year over year, with monthly value reaching a record high;
Imports: $313.65 billion, up 31.0% year over year, surpassing $300 billion for the first time;
Trade surplus: $133.53 billion, the highest since January 2025;
Total imports and exports: 5.16 trillion yuan, topping 5 trillion for the first time.
Expectations for October vary widely. Citi forecasts exports up 38.0%, imports up 36.0%, and a surplus of $112.8 billion. Another research report is more bullish, projecting export growth of 39.7%. Newsquawk forecasts just 32.3% growth and a $126.5 billion surplus. Taken together, export growth expectations range from 32% to 40%, with the surplus seen at $113 billion to $126.5 billion.
There are solid arguments on both sides. The bearish case: October's PMI new export orders declined, freight growth slowed to 1.4% from 5.2% in September, and container freight rate increases also narrowed markedly. The bullish case: South Korean exports continued to rise, port shipments improved slightly, the comparison base from a year earlier is low, and the AI cycle and resilient global manufacturing demand provide support.
This whale's take: September's 36.3% growth was already a record high. For October to climb even higher, it won't be because demand suddenly improved, but because of two factors: a low base and AI hardware shipments. If the data beat expectations, risk appetite could recover. $BTC is holding near $75,900 over the weekend, with an RSI of 38, so sentiment could get some breathing room. But if export growth falls to around 32% and the surplus also shrinks, that would show external demand is starting to weaken. The next big test will be whether domestic demand data can pick up the slack.
The General Administration of Customs will release October trade data on Tuesday. First, just how strong was September?
Exports: $447.18 billion, up 36.3% year over year, with monthly value reaching a record high;
Imports: $313.65 billion, up 31.0% year over year, surpassing $300 billion for the first time;
Trade surplus: $133.53 billion, the highest since January 2025;
Total imports and exports: 5.16 trillion yuan, topping 5 trillion for the first time.
Expectations for October vary widely. Citi forecasts exports up 38.0%, imports up 36.0%, and a surplus of $112.8 billion. Another research report is more bullish, projecting export growth of 39.7%. Newsquawk forecasts just 32.3% growth and a $126.5 billion surplus. Taken together, export growth expectations range from 32% to 40%, with the surplus seen at $113 billion to $126.5 billion.
There are solid arguments on both sides. The bearish case: October's PMI new export orders declined, freight growth slowed to 1.4% from 5.2% in September, and container freight rate increases also narrowed markedly. The bullish case: South Korean exports continued to rise, port shipments improved slightly, the comparison base from a year earlier is low, and the AI cycle and resilient global manufacturing demand provide support.
This whale's take: September's 36.3% growth was already a record high. For October to climb even higher, it won't be because demand suddenly improved, but because of two factors: a low base and AI hardware shipments. If the data beat expectations, risk appetite could recover. $BTC is holding near $75,900 over the weekend, with an RSI of 38, so sentiment could get some breathing room. But if export growth falls to around 32% and the surplus also shrinks, that would show external demand is starting to weaken. The next big test will be whether domestic demand data can pick up the slack.
