#cpitestsdecemberrateoutlook
Tuesday's CPI is not a normal inflation print.
October CPI lands Nov 10 at 8:30 AM ET, the last one before the Dec 8-9 FOMC. After 165K jobs (vs ~59K expected) and unemployment at 4.1%, markets price a 25 bp hike at roughly 75-80%, up from about 67% before the jobs report.
What the numbers say:
- Consensus: headline +0.3% m/m, core +0.2% (September: +0.6% / +0.3%)
- Fed funds: 3.75-4.00%, two dissenters wanted a hike in October
The trap: there is no year-over-year figure. BLS never collected October 2025 data during the shutdown, so any "inflation hits X% annually" headline for October is wrong. Core m/m is the number to read.
Why $BTC may not follow CPI alone: it fell about 6% to ~$75K this week as the Nasdaq entered correction, with $1.25B in liquidations. A hot core print supports the hike. A soft one still leaves AI-spending fear in charge.
Does core at 0.2% or lower kill the December hike?
Not financial advice. DYOR.
$BTC
$ETH
#JobsReportRaisesHikeOdds #Fed #Bitcoin
Tuesday's CPI is not a normal inflation print.
October CPI lands Nov 10 at 8:30 AM ET, the last one before the Dec 8-9 FOMC. After 165K jobs (vs ~59K expected) and unemployment at 4.1%, markets price a 25 bp hike at roughly 75-80%, up from about 67% before the jobs report.
What the numbers say:
- Consensus: headline +0.3% m/m, core +0.2% (September: +0.6% / +0.3%)
- Fed funds: 3.75-4.00%, two dissenters wanted a hike in October
The trap: there is no year-over-year figure. BLS never collected October 2025 data during the shutdown, so any "inflation hits X% annually" headline for October is wrong. Core m/m is the number to read.
Why $BTC may not follow CPI alone: it fell about 6% to ~$75K this week as the Nasdaq entered correction, with $1.25B in liquidations. A hot core print supports the hike. A soft one still leaves AI-spending fear in charge.
Does core at 0.2% or lower kill the December hike?
Not financial advice. DYOR.
$BTC
$ETH
#JobsReportRaisesHikeOdds #Fed #Bitcoin
