📰 Lightning Network rollout at scale: Why Square’s plan to reach 4 million merchants could accelerate BTC
Square announced that it will complete the rollout of its Bitcoin payments network to 4 million merchants on November 10. Launched on March 30, the plan automatically connects U.S. merchants without requiring them to apply, enabling near-instant settlement through the Lightning Network. Merchants can choose to receive dollars or Bitcoin, and Square may also waive transaction fees. This means Bitcoin’s payment capabilities could suddenly expand to millions of endpoints.
Why does this news matter?
Square’s merchant network is a key infrastructure hub in bringing cryptocurrency into the mainstream. Its scale can directly challenge the stereotype that crypto exists only on major platforms. The Lightning Network is already here, but adoption among merchants has remained a bottleneck. At its core, this plan is a milestone in cryptocurrency’s shift from a tool for “niche players” to one for the “general public.”
Looking at the industry cycle, Bitcoin is entering a fourth phase, in which “use-case adoption” is essential. In 2017, people focused on prices; in 2020, on institutions; by 2024, the focus had to shift to real-world everyday payments. Square’s move directly addresses this core need. It also connects with other recent developments: U.S. regulators have grown more receptive to Bitcoin payments (as reflected in the IRS’s latest tax guidance), while the Lightning Network’s total computing power has recently hit a new high. Together, these developments make for a perfect catalyst.
Market impact
In the short term, this news could significantly boost market sentiment, particularly for BTC. A single Lightning Network transaction costs roughly one-thousandth as much as one on Bitcoin’s main chain. A boom in payment use cases could validate Bitcoin’s practical value. A similar historical event was the 2018 P2P market boom, though the scale and efficiency are entirely different. BTC is expected to gain momentum for an accelerated rally.
The long-term impact is even more profound: once payments become an established use case, Bitcoin will be more than just “digital gold”—it will also have the qualities of “digital cash.” This means a structural shift in the flow of funds, as new capital from stablecoins and fiat currencies could enter through payment channels. One example is Shopify’s payments initiative, which directly helped drive a 30% rise in BTC’s price over one month.
Trading approach
The expansion of Bitcoin’s payment network could serve as a clear positive catalyst. With BTC currently priced at $75,828.49, merchant adoption exceeding expectations—for example, more than 50% of merchants automatically connected before November—could make this price range a key support level. If the rollout lags behind market expectations, this thesis no longer holds.
💡 This plan means the tipping point for BTC payment adoption could arrive sooner than expected. If, after November 10, we find that only a tiny fraction of merchants are using Bitcoin payments, this assessment is invalidated.
[Thesis invalidation condition] If November data shows that Bitcoin transactions account for less than 5% of transactions at connected merchants, this bullish thesis is invalidated.
[Disclosure of position] This article is not sponsored by any project team, and the author does not hold any of the assets mentioned.
⚠️ This is not investment advice. Forecasts are for reference only.
#SquareExpectstoCompleteBitcoinPaymentsRolloutAcrossMoreThan4MillionM
$BTC #PaymentIntegration
Square announced that it will complete the rollout of its Bitcoin payments network to 4 million merchants on November 10. Launched on March 30, the plan automatically connects U.S. merchants without requiring them to apply, enabling near-instant settlement through the Lightning Network. Merchants can choose to receive dollars or Bitcoin, and Square may also waive transaction fees. This means Bitcoin’s payment capabilities could suddenly expand to millions of endpoints.
Why does this news matter?
Square’s merchant network is a key infrastructure hub in bringing cryptocurrency into the mainstream. Its scale can directly challenge the stereotype that crypto exists only on major platforms. The Lightning Network is already here, but adoption among merchants has remained a bottleneck. At its core, this plan is a milestone in cryptocurrency’s shift from a tool for “niche players” to one for the “general public.”
Looking at the industry cycle, Bitcoin is entering a fourth phase, in which “use-case adoption” is essential. In 2017, people focused on prices; in 2020, on institutions; by 2024, the focus had to shift to real-world everyday payments. Square’s move directly addresses this core need. It also connects with other recent developments: U.S. regulators have grown more receptive to Bitcoin payments (as reflected in the IRS’s latest tax guidance), while the Lightning Network’s total computing power has recently hit a new high. Together, these developments make for a perfect catalyst.
Market impact
In the short term, this news could significantly boost market sentiment, particularly for BTC. A single Lightning Network transaction costs roughly one-thousandth as much as one on Bitcoin’s main chain. A boom in payment use cases could validate Bitcoin’s practical value. A similar historical event was the 2018 P2P market boom, though the scale and efficiency are entirely different. BTC is expected to gain momentum for an accelerated rally.
The long-term impact is even more profound: once payments become an established use case, Bitcoin will be more than just “digital gold”—it will also have the qualities of “digital cash.” This means a structural shift in the flow of funds, as new capital from stablecoins and fiat currencies could enter through payment channels. One example is Shopify’s payments initiative, which directly helped drive a 30% rise in BTC’s price over one month.
Trading approach
The expansion of Bitcoin’s payment network could serve as a clear positive catalyst. With BTC currently priced at $75,828.49, merchant adoption exceeding expectations—for example, more than 50% of merchants automatically connected before November—could make this price range a key support level. If the rollout lags behind market expectations, this thesis no longer holds.
💡 This plan means the tipping point for BTC payment adoption could arrive sooner than expected. If, after November 10, we find that only a tiny fraction of merchants are using Bitcoin payments, this assessment is invalidated.
[Thesis invalidation condition] If November data shows that Bitcoin transactions account for less than 5% of transactions at connected merchants, this bullish thesis is invalidated.
[Disclosure of position] This article is not sponsored by any project team, and the author does not hold any of the assets mentioned.
⚠️ This is not investment advice. Forecasts are for reference only.
#SquareExpectstoCompleteBitcoinPaymentsRolloutAcrossMoreThan4MillionM
$BTC #PaymentIntegration
