The 64-million-dollar bearish candle that slammed the price to 1.1509 at 11:00 barely shook open interest—$XRP futures open interest has only slipped from a peak of about 335 million contracts yesterday morning to around 335 million now. The current price is about 1.159, down roughly 3.0% over the past day, with futures volume at about 690 million dollars. At 10:00, price plunged from 1.178 to 1.162 on about 45 million in volume; at 11:00, it tested the daily low again. In the afternoon, it bounced to a high of 1.1817 at 16:00, then fell back from 1.173 to 1.159 at 20:00 on a single candle worth about 19 million dollars, wiping out most of the rebound.
Positioning is stubborn. The share of retail accounts long rose to about 77% at yesterday morning’s peak and eased only to around 73.8% during the sell-off—after a day and a half, it’s still stuck near 74%. Whales’ long positions are about 68%, and whale accounts are about 76% long; both remain tilted to the long side. The latest funding rate is about +0.01%, so longs are still paying shorts a small amount. After the 11:00 plunge, open interest actually swelled from about 334 million back to around 339 million by 13:00, with positions added again during the rebound. The mechanism is simple: prices are grinding lower, but traders aren’t letting go of their positions, and dip-buyers are still sitting on the floor trying to catch the falling knife.
The one-hour RSI is about 34; the 12-period moving average is around 1.170, the 26-period moving average around 1.180, and the lower Keltner band at about 1.159 is right alongside the current price. The lower Bollinger Band is around 1.156, and the KDJ J value is about 45. The moving averages are bearishly aligned; price is grinding along the lower Keltner band. The short-term market is oversold, but positioning measures haven’t eased.
For now, I’m treating the action around 1.159 as a weekend drift lower with the dip-buying not yet finished—not as a capitulation flush marking a bottom. Until retail longs ease back to 65% and open interest falls below 320 million contracts, any rebound is likely to run into resistance at the 12-period moving average around 1.170. If the daily low of 1.1509 breaks, look for a deeper decline.
$XRP #合约数据 #OpenInterest
Positioning is stubborn. The share of retail accounts long rose to about 77% at yesterday morning’s peak and eased only to around 73.8% during the sell-off—after a day and a half, it’s still stuck near 74%. Whales’ long positions are about 68%, and whale accounts are about 76% long; both remain tilted to the long side. The latest funding rate is about +0.01%, so longs are still paying shorts a small amount. After the 11:00 plunge, open interest actually swelled from about 334 million back to around 339 million by 13:00, with positions added again during the rebound. The mechanism is simple: prices are grinding lower, but traders aren’t letting go of their positions, and dip-buyers are still sitting on the floor trying to catch the falling knife.
The one-hour RSI is about 34; the 12-period moving average is around 1.170, the 26-period moving average around 1.180, and the lower Keltner band at about 1.159 is right alongside the current price. The lower Bollinger Band is around 1.156, and the KDJ J value is about 45. The moving averages are bearishly aligned; price is grinding along the lower Keltner band. The short-term market is oversold, but positioning measures haven’t eased.
For now, I’m treating the action around 1.159 as a weekend drift lower with the dip-buying not yet finished—not as a capitulation flush marking a bottom. Until retail longs ease back to 65% and open interest falls below 320 million contracts, any rebound is likely to run into resistance at the 12-period moving average around 1.170. If the daily low of 1.1509 breaks, look for a deeper decline.
$XRP #合约数据 #OpenInterest
