CPI keeps falling, while PPI keeps rising faster and faster—the contrast in Monday’s China data couldn’t be starker 📈
At 9:30 a.m. on Monday, the National Bureau of Statistics will release October CPI and PPI data.
Here’s what the market expects:
CPI up 0.8% year over year, a little lower than September’s 0.9%, and basically flat month over month
PPI up 5.4% year over year, accelerating further from September’s 5.0%—from 3.8% in August to 5.0% in September and now 5.4% in October, rising for three straight months
On one hand, prices paid by ordinary people are still stuck below 1%. Food prices have fallen for six straight months, with pork still weighing on the index. On the other, factory-gate prices are rising faster and faster, as higher energy and commodity costs pass downstream. The manufacturing PMI also fell back to 49.3 in October, returning to contraction territory.
This whale’s take: price increases are getting stuck in the middle—prices are rising upstream, but end demand isn’t absorbing them, squeezing corporate profits from both ends. That’s the real signal in this data. A-shares, meanwhile, rebounded last week: MSCI China gained 7.1% for the week, and the ChiNext rose 6.35%. The market is already betting on a shift in inflation expectations.
For crypto, Monday’s data will set the tone for “inflation super week,” but the real test comes with U.S. CPI on Tuesday. $BTC is now trading near $76,000, having just climbed back above its 50-week moving average. In a data-packed week, watch the numbers first, then the direction.
Be ready for all three scenarios: PPI above expectations would confirm upstream inflation; a surprise jump in CPI would signal a recovery in domestic demand; and if both come in below expectations, deflation worries will return. Better keep your cash close for now, and let Monday’s 9:30 numbers do the talking.
At 9:30 a.m. on Monday, the National Bureau of Statistics will release October CPI and PPI data.
Here’s what the market expects:
CPI up 0.8% year over year, a little lower than September’s 0.9%, and basically flat month over month
PPI up 5.4% year over year, accelerating further from September’s 5.0%—from 3.8% in August to 5.0% in September and now 5.4% in October, rising for three straight months
On one hand, prices paid by ordinary people are still stuck below 1%. Food prices have fallen for six straight months, with pork still weighing on the index. On the other, factory-gate prices are rising faster and faster, as higher energy and commodity costs pass downstream. The manufacturing PMI also fell back to 49.3 in October, returning to contraction territory.
This whale’s take: price increases are getting stuck in the middle—prices are rising upstream, but end demand isn’t absorbing them, squeezing corporate profits from both ends. That’s the real signal in this data. A-shares, meanwhile, rebounded last week: MSCI China gained 7.1% for the week, and the ChiNext rose 6.35%. The market is already betting on a shift in inflation expectations.
For crypto, Monday’s data will set the tone for “inflation super week,” but the real test comes with U.S. CPI on Tuesday. $BTC is now trading near $76,000, having just climbed back above its 50-week moving average. In a data-packed week, watch the numbers first, then the direction.
Be ready for all three scenarios: PPI above expectations would confirm upstream inflation; a surprise jump in CPI would signal a recovery in domestic demand; and if both come in below expectations, deflation worries will return. Better keep your cash close for now, and let Monday’s 9:30 numbers do the talking.
