We used to hope for strong jobs data. Now we’re hoping it’ll be weak. These days, even seasoned bagholders don’t know what to think anymore.
On November 6, the U.S. added 165,000 nonfarm jobs in October, versus market expectations of only around 60,000 to 70,000. Unemployment fell to 4.1%, hourly wages rose 0.4% month over month and 3.1% year over year. That’s half good, half bad for stock investors—and basically bad news for the crypto crowd.
Why? Because bets on a December rate hike have been climbing. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a December hike rose to around 77%; another estimate put it close to 85%. Different sources use different measures, but before the data came out, the odds were around 70% to 75%. The direction is clear: up. The 2-year Treasury yield rose to 4.52%, the 10-year to 4.87%, and the dollar index gained 0.7%. At the close, according to CBS, the Nasdaq was up 1.1%, the S&P 500 rose 0.3%, while the Dow fell 0.5%—a classic case of “good news turning into bad news.” Investors weren’t willing to pile in with abandon.
Following that thread, on October 28 the Fed held rates steady, but according to Blockhead, two officials voted for a hike. In crypto, BTC plunged to $76,000 on November 5. The November 6 price page showed it still hovering around $76,000, with no one-way rebound. Blockhead also noted that Strategy’s average cost was about $75,446; if $75,000 gives way, the company would be sitting on paper losses. That calculation comes from a single source, but the market really is watching that level.
I don’t know whether it’ll happen, but when rate-hike expectations are rising, people trying to buy the dip often end up catching a falling knife. October’s CPI data is also due on November 10. Until the numbers are out, don’t go all in.
Do you think that if a rate hike really comes, BTC can hold above $75,000?
$BTC
#非农就业数据推升加息预期
On November 6, the U.S. added 165,000 nonfarm jobs in October, versus market expectations of only around 60,000 to 70,000. Unemployment fell to 4.1%, hourly wages rose 0.4% month over month and 3.1% year over year. That’s half good, half bad for stock investors—and basically bad news for the crypto crowd.
Why? Because bets on a December rate hike have been climbing. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a December hike rose to around 77%; another estimate put it close to 85%. Different sources use different measures, but before the data came out, the odds were around 70% to 75%. The direction is clear: up. The 2-year Treasury yield rose to 4.52%, the 10-year to 4.87%, and the dollar index gained 0.7%. At the close, according to CBS, the Nasdaq was up 1.1%, the S&P 500 rose 0.3%, while the Dow fell 0.5%—a classic case of “good news turning into bad news.” Investors weren’t willing to pile in with abandon.
Following that thread, on October 28 the Fed held rates steady, but according to Blockhead, two officials voted for a hike. In crypto, BTC plunged to $76,000 on November 5. The November 6 price page showed it still hovering around $76,000, with no one-way rebound. Blockhead also noted that Strategy’s average cost was about $75,446; if $75,000 gives way, the company would be sitting on paper losses. That calculation comes from a single source, but the market really is watching that level.
I don’t know whether it’ll happen, but when rate-hike expectations are rising, people trying to buy the dip often end up catching a falling knife. October’s CPI data is also due on November 10. Until the numbers are out, don’t go all in.
Do you think that if a rate hike really comes, BTC can hold above $75,000?
$BTC
#非农就业数据推升加息预期
