📊 Saturday Midday Deep Dive | A Race Between Macro Headwinds and a Regulatory Thaw

Today’s nonfarm payrolls far exceeded expectations: 165,000 jobs were added in October, well above the forecast of 64,000. Unemployment stood at 4.1%, and the probability of a December rate hike surged to 77%. Risk assets came under broad pressure, Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows, and the Democrats’ victory in both chambers of Congress cast an even greater shadow over the CLARITY Act. On the other hand, Russia’s central bank officially approved retail investors’ legal trading of BTC/ETH/USDT starting November 17, opening the door to sovereign markets.

On-chain fundamentals remain solid: TRON’s stablecoin market cap surpassed $94 billion, adding $256.5 million in a week—the most of any chain. Circle minted another $250 million in USDC on Solana. AAVE acquired Avon to enter fixed-rate lending, with $33 billion in deposits and $13 billion in loans outstanding.

Don’t forget the security warnings: The Binance $6.3 billion hack revealed an eight-week infiltration window. Crypto security scrutiny across the banking system is tightening, bringing cold-hot wallet separation and self-custody back into focus.

In the short term, watch the macro mood; in the long term, watch the adoption narrative. Position management matters more than betting on direction.

NFA | DYOR

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