Consensus puts Sea’s Q3 EPS up 65% and revenue up 35%, yet the stock has already fallen 20%—Sea reports Tuesday before the bell.
Sea will release its Q3 2026 results before the U.S. market opens on November 10. The earnings call is at 7:30 a.m. ET (8:30 p.m. Beijing time); the date has been confirmed.
Consensus EPS is around $0.97–$1.04, versus $0.59 a year ago; revenue is expected at about $8.07–$8.32 billion, versus $5.99 billion a year ago, up roughly 35% year over year. The options market is pricing in a post-earnings move of about ±14%, making it one of next Tuesday’s most volatile large-cap stocks.
Last quarter, revenue was $7.79 billion, up 48% year over year, but EPS of $0.70 missed the $0.86 consensus. MarketBeat says Sea has beaten EPS consensus 0 times in the past 8 quarters; earnings have consistently been its weak spot.
Three things to watch this time: whether Shopee’s Q3 adjusted EBITDA can rise from last quarter’s $255 million. Before Q3, the company raised Shopee’s full-year target to over $1 billion, which means it needs to earn more in the second half than in the first to get there; whether advertising revenue, up more than 70% last quarter, can keep growing at that pace; and Monee lending and Garena bookings.
The stock closed at $75.73 on November 6, down 20% in a month and 40.6% year to date. Its 52-week range is $71.53–$159.80, putting it more than halfway below its high.
My take, in three scenarios: If EPS tops the high end of $1.04 and revenue exceeds $8.32 billion, and management explains on the call how much progress Shopee’s Q3 EBITDA has made toward the $1 billion target, then the risk-reward from the sell-off has paid off. If results are in line with consensus but Shopee discusses GMV without breaking out profit, call it an ordinary delivery. If results are near the low end or full-year guidance softens, reassess how much leeway to allow given last quarter’s miss and 0 beats in 8 quarters. Don’t chase the first premarket move; wait for the call to break down the three businesses, then reassess. $SE
Sea will release its Q3 2026 results before the U.S. market opens on November 10. The earnings call is at 7:30 a.m. ET (8:30 p.m. Beijing time); the date has been confirmed.
Consensus EPS is around $0.97–$1.04, versus $0.59 a year ago; revenue is expected at about $8.07–$8.32 billion, versus $5.99 billion a year ago, up roughly 35% year over year. The options market is pricing in a post-earnings move of about ±14%, making it one of next Tuesday’s most volatile large-cap stocks.
Last quarter, revenue was $7.79 billion, up 48% year over year, but EPS of $0.70 missed the $0.86 consensus. MarketBeat says Sea has beaten EPS consensus 0 times in the past 8 quarters; earnings have consistently been its weak spot.
Three things to watch this time: whether Shopee’s Q3 adjusted EBITDA can rise from last quarter’s $255 million. Before Q3, the company raised Shopee’s full-year target to over $1 billion, which means it needs to earn more in the second half than in the first to get there; whether advertising revenue, up more than 70% last quarter, can keep growing at that pace; and Monee lending and Garena bookings.
The stock closed at $75.73 on November 6, down 20% in a month and 40.6% year to date. Its 52-week range is $71.53–$159.80, putting it more than halfway below its high.
My take, in three scenarios: If EPS tops the high end of $1.04 and revenue exceeds $8.32 billion, and management explains on the call how much progress Shopee’s Q3 EBITDA has made toward the $1 billion target, then the risk-reward from the sell-off has paid off. If results are in line with consensus but Shopee discusses GMV without breaking out profit, call it an ordinary delivery. If results are near the low end or full-year guidance softens, reassess how much leeway to allow given last quarter’s miss and 0 beats in 8 quarters. Don’t chase the first premarket move; wait for the call to break down the three businesses, then reassess. $SE
