Revenue is expected to triple year over year, but the stock has already fallen 47% in a month—is Monday’s earnings report a chance to prove the story or just another blow? 📡
AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS ) is scheduled to report its fiscal Q3 2026 results after the U.S. market closes on November 9. The conference call is at 17:00 Eastern Time (06:00 Beijing time on November 10).
Consensus calls for a loss of about $0.41 to $0.42 per share, narrower by about 8.9% than the $0.45 loss a year ago. Revenue is expected to come in at around $44.47 million to $45.73 million, roughly triple the $14.74 million reported in the year-ago quarter. Zacks’ ESP is -0.17%, with a Rank of 3, so its model isn’t betting on an earnings beat this time.
Last quarter’s track record wasn’t great: Q2 loss per share was $0.77, well above the consensus loss of $0.315, while revenue of $31.52 million also missed expectations of $34.53 million. Over the past eight quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS only twice.
The stock has already taken a hit: ASTS closed at $32.33 on November 6, rebounding 7.05% for the day, but it’s still down about 25% over five days, 47% over a month, and 55% year to date. It’s also well below its 50-day moving average of $52.75 and its 200-day moving average of $76.41. Analysts’ average price targets are in the $65–$75 range.
This whale’s view comes in three parts: If revenue tops $45.73 million, the loss narrows to $0.41 per share or less, and management clarifies satellite launch and commercialization progress on the call, that would validate the “triple-digit revenue growth” story and give the beaten-down stock’s risk-reward case some real footing. If results merely land within consensus and the call offers no clarity on the launch schedule, treat it as business as usual—don’t read too much into strong revenue growth. If results come in near the low end or the full-year outlook softens, reassess with little room for error after a nearly 50% monthly drop. Don’t chase the first after-hours move; wait for the call to break down the details and provide full-year guidance.
AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS ) is scheduled to report its fiscal Q3 2026 results after the U.S. market closes on November 9. The conference call is at 17:00 Eastern Time (06:00 Beijing time on November 10).
Consensus calls for a loss of about $0.41 to $0.42 per share, narrower by about 8.9% than the $0.45 loss a year ago. Revenue is expected to come in at around $44.47 million to $45.73 million, roughly triple the $14.74 million reported in the year-ago quarter. Zacks’ ESP is -0.17%, with a Rank of 3, so its model isn’t betting on an earnings beat this time.
Last quarter’s track record wasn’t great: Q2 loss per share was $0.77, well above the consensus loss of $0.315, while revenue of $31.52 million also missed expectations of $34.53 million. Over the past eight quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS only twice.
The stock has already taken a hit: ASTS closed at $32.33 on November 6, rebounding 7.05% for the day, but it’s still down about 25% over five days, 47% over a month, and 55% year to date. It’s also well below its 50-day moving average of $52.75 and its 200-day moving average of $76.41. Analysts’ average price targets are in the $65–$75 range.
This whale’s view comes in three parts: If revenue tops $45.73 million, the loss narrows to $0.41 per share or less, and management clarifies satellite launch and commercialization progress on the call, that would validate the “triple-digit revenue growth” story and give the beaten-down stock’s risk-reward case some real footing. If results merely land within consensus and the call offers no clarity on the launch schedule, treat it as business as usual—don’t read too much into strong revenue growth. If results come in near the low end or the full-year outlook softens, reassess with little room for error after a nearly 50% monthly drop. Don’t chase the first after-hours move; wait for the call to break down the details and provide full-year guidance.
