Expected 65,000, but the actual figure came in at a whopping 165,000. Traders were completely blindsided by the nonfarm payrolls report.
They were still betting on a December rate cut, but now interest rate futures have been hammered, and traders are piling back into bets on a 25-basis-point hike in December.
First, they revised September’s data up to 60,000, then the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. The Fed isn’t exactly turning on the taps here—it clearly thinks the water’s too hot and needs some ice. And just like that, macro-sensitive assets like AVAX got crushed too.
If the odds of a December hike fall from 72.8% to below 50%, then this rate-hike drama is finally over. Otherwise, the macro sledgehammer is going to keep swinging.
They were still betting on a December rate cut, but now interest rate futures have been hammered, and traders are piling back into bets on a 25-basis-point hike in December.
First, they revised September’s data up to 60,000, then the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. The Fed isn’t exactly turning on the taps here—it clearly thinks the water’s too hot and needs some ice. And just like that, macro-sensitive assets like AVAX got crushed too.
If the odds of a December hike fall from 72.8% to below 50%, then this rate-hike drama is finally over. Otherwise, the macro sledgehammer is going to keep swinging.
