#非农就业数据推升加息预期 Blowout nonfarm payrolls reignite rate hike bets, weighing on crypto in the short term
The event took place on November 6, 2026: the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 165,000 new jobs in October, far exceeding market expectations of around 60,000–70,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month over month, and figures for August and September were revised up by a combined 84,000. All three indicators came in hotter than expected, prompting traders to raise the probability of a 25-bp Fed rate hike in December from around 75% to 80%–85%. Two-year Treasury yields jumped, and the dollar strengthened.
Key drivers: The labor market has not cooled as expected, and sticky wages could feed into services inflation. Combined with demand-side inflationary pressure from AI investment, the Fed’s “fight inflation” stance has regained the upper hand, pushing rate-cut expectations decisively further out.
Short term 📉: Expectations of tighter liquidity directly weigh on risk assets. After the data was released, BTC fell below $76,000, losing nearly 5% on the day. More than 230,000 traders were liquidated across the market, while ETH and SOL also plunged.
Mid-term divergence: If the rate hike is implemented and inflation peaks, BTC and BNB, as highly liquid core assets, may be first to recover 📈; high-valuation altcoins such as XRP still need to shed excess froth 📉.
Bearish in the short term, structurally bullish in the long run—the broader crypto market is likely to remain weak until rate hike expectations have been fully priced in. Once the rate path becomes clearer, capital will flow back into leading assets.
Macroeconomic data can reverse quickly. Use caution with leveraged positions; volatility has risen sharply since the nonfarm payrolls report.
$BTC
$ETH
$SOL
The event took place on November 6, 2026: the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 165,000 new jobs in October, far exceeding market expectations of around 60,000–70,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month over month, and figures for August and September were revised up by a combined 84,000. All three indicators came in hotter than expected, prompting traders to raise the probability of a 25-bp Fed rate hike in December from around 75% to 80%–85%. Two-year Treasury yields jumped, and the dollar strengthened.
Key drivers: The labor market has not cooled as expected, and sticky wages could feed into services inflation. Combined with demand-side inflationary pressure from AI investment, the Fed’s “fight inflation” stance has regained the upper hand, pushing rate-cut expectations decisively further out.
Short term 📉: Expectations of tighter liquidity directly weigh on risk assets. After the data was released, BTC fell below $76,000, losing nearly 5% on the day. More than 230,000 traders were liquidated across the market, while ETH and SOL also plunged.
Mid-term divergence: If the rate hike is implemented and inflation peaks, BTC and BNB, as highly liquid core assets, may be first to recover 📈; high-valuation altcoins such as XRP still need to shed excess froth 📉.
Bearish in the short term, structurally bullish in the long run—the broader crypto market is likely to remain weak until rate hike expectations have been fully priced in. Once the rate path becomes clearer, capital will flow back into leading assets.
Macroeconomic data can reverse quickly. Use caution with leveraged positions; volatility has risen sharply since the nonfarm payrolls report.
$BTC
$ETH
$SOL