#美股一夜蒸发超2万亿，多家对冲基金面临清算
$3.7 trillion evaporated in a single day—and the first to hit the sell button wasn’t an institution 🦖
📣 盘面异动群里喊
Bloomberg reviewed Thursday’s U.S. stock selloff.
In the first half hour after the open, retail investors took profits first. Hedge funds and long-only institutions followed later.
The Nasdaq 100 posted its biggest one-day drop since March 2020, while the fear gauge VIX surged from 16.6 to nearly 28.
Vanda Research data showed that retail investors’ net selling of individual stocks that day was the second-largest on record, surpassed only by the two days during the March 2020 pandemic shock.
Its strategist, Viraj Patel, put it more bluntly: while retail and systematic investors were actively selling, institutional buyers were stepping away.
The order book wasn’t a battle between bulls and bears. It was a one-sided retreat.
What really amplified the losses was rules, not emotion.
Nomura’s Charlie McElligott estimated that, based on Thursday’s intraday negative gamma exposure, every 1% drop in stocks would trigger options dealers’ hedging activity to generate an additional roughly $7 billion in selling pressure.
Volatility-control funds needed to cut around $61 billion in stocks, about $25 billion of which was still being executed as of Thursday.
Leveraged ETFs’ end-of-day rebalancing was expected to bring another roughly $47 billion in selling.
Commodity trading advisers sold around $13 billion in S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures.
Goldman Sachs’ trading desk estimated that fundamental long-short funds lost about 1.3% that day, technology-focused funds fell more than 4%, and a basket of AI hardware stocks dropped 12% to 15%.
That same night, the crypto market was being swept up by the same mechanisms 💥
CoinGlass data showed $1.05 billion in liquidations across the market over the past 24 hours. Long positions accounted for $930 million, or 88.2%, while shorts made up just $125 million.
Bitcoin plunged to a low of $74,780, its lowest since August 21 and a 77-day low. It’s currently around $75,800 📉
Bitcoin liquidations totaled $267 million, 88.9% of them longs. Ethereum liquidations totaled $167 million, 81.1% of them longs.
The Fear & Greed Index fell to 28, close to extreme fear, after being neutral a week ago.
Here’s something that’s easy to misread ⚠️
The liquidation figures look alarming, but they’re not the cause—they’re the result. Leverage gets forcibly closed out after prices fall, pushing prices even lower.
In U.S. stocks, negative gamma and volatility-targeting strategies are selling. In crypto, liquidation engines are selling. Essentially, it’s the same thing: rules are making decisions on people’s behalf.
This kind of selling pressure has a timetable. It stops once positions are reduced to their targets; it won’t continue indefinitely.
The next thing to watch isn’t how much further prices fall, but whether spot buyers can absorb the selling once the mechanical pressure runs its course.
Bitcoin has now fallen below both its 50-day moving average of 79,756 and its 200-day moving average of 76,497. In September, it was still above 87,000.
My view is that sentiment has played a smaller role in this selloff than it might seem, while mechanical selling has played a larger one.
Mechanical flows arrive fast and disappear fast, but they won’t give you a pretty bottom. They’ll just keep sweeping prices back and forth within a range.
For a genuine reversal signal, I’d rather watch two things: whether volume picks up as volatility subsides, and whether spot buyers are still there once liquidations end.
Were you among those swept out over the past couple of days, or among those buying the dip?
Let’s talk in the comments.
Tap the profile picture to watch the livestream.
Every day, I bring you the latest macro and crypto market developments—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind it 👀🚀
$3.7 trillion evaporated in a single day—and the first to hit the sell button wasn’t an institution 🦖
📣 盘面异动群里喊
Bloomberg reviewed Thursday’s U.S. stock selloff.
In the first half hour after the open, retail investors took profits first. Hedge funds and long-only institutions followed later.
The Nasdaq 100 posted its biggest one-day drop since March 2020, while the fear gauge VIX surged from 16.6 to nearly 28.
Vanda Research data showed that retail investors’ net selling of individual stocks that day was the second-largest on record, surpassed only by the two days during the March 2020 pandemic shock.
Its strategist, Viraj Patel, put it more bluntly: while retail and systematic investors were actively selling, institutional buyers were stepping away.
The order book wasn’t a battle between bulls and bears. It was a one-sided retreat.
What really amplified the losses was rules, not emotion.
Nomura’s Charlie McElligott estimated that, based on Thursday’s intraday negative gamma exposure, every 1% drop in stocks would trigger options dealers’ hedging activity to generate an additional roughly $7 billion in selling pressure.
Volatility-control funds needed to cut around $61 billion in stocks, about $25 billion of which was still being executed as of Thursday.
Leveraged ETFs’ end-of-day rebalancing was expected to bring another roughly $47 billion in selling.
Commodity trading advisers sold around $13 billion in S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures.
Goldman Sachs’ trading desk estimated that fundamental long-short funds lost about 1.3% that day, technology-focused funds fell more than 4%, and a basket of AI hardware stocks dropped 12% to 15%.
That same night, the crypto market was being swept up by the same mechanisms 💥
CoinGlass data showed $1.05 billion in liquidations across the market over the past 24 hours. Long positions accounted for $930 million, or 88.2%, while shorts made up just $125 million.
Bitcoin plunged to a low of $74,780, its lowest since August 21 and a 77-day low. It’s currently around $75,800 📉
Bitcoin liquidations totaled $267 million, 88.9% of them longs. Ethereum liquidations totaled $167 million, 81.1% of them longs.
The Fear & Greed Index fell to 28, close to extreme fear, after being neutral a week ago.
Here’s something that’s easy to misread ⚠️
The liquidation figures look alarming, but they’re not the cause—they’re the result. Leverage gets forcibly closed out after prices fall, pushing prices even lower.
In U.S. stocks, negative gamma and volatility-targeting strategies are selling. In crypto, liquidation engines are selling. Essentially, it’s the same thing: rules are making decisions on people’s behalf.
This kind of selling pressure has a timetable. It stops once positions are reduced to their targets; it won’t continue indefinitely.
The next thing to watch isn’t how much further prices fall, but whether spot buyers can absorb the selling once the mechanical pressure runs its course.
Bitcoin has now fallen below both its 50-day moving average of 79,756 and its 200-day moving average of 76,497. In September, it was still above 87,000.
My view is that sentiment has played a smaller role in this selloff than it might seem, while mechanical selling has played a larger one.
Mechanical flows arrive fast and disappear fast, but they won’t give you a pretty bottom. They’ll just keep sweeping prices back and forth within a range.
For a genuine reversal signal, I’d rather watch two things: whether volume picks up as volatility subsides, and whether spot buyers are still there once liquidations end.
Were you among those swept out over the past couple of days, or among those buying the dip?
Let’s talk in the comments.
Tap the profile picture to watch the livestream.
Every day, I bring you the latest macro and crypto market developments—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind it 👀🚀
