Historically, the time from Bitcoin’s peak to its true bottom has generally been about a year:
2013–2015: 406 days, falling from around $1,100 to $170
2017–2018: 364 days, falling from nearly $20,000 to $3,200
2021–2022: 378 days, falling from around $69,000 to $15,700
2025–2026: From the August 2025 peak to the May 2026 bottom, the period was clearly shorter than in previous cycles
All three complete cycles fell within the 364–406-day range, driven by common factors: liquidity contraction after the halving + declining risk appetite + leveraged positions being flushed out.
This time, the period was shorter and the drawdown was also shallower, reflecting the objective impact of structural changes in the market following the introduction of ETFs.
The current environment: After the midterm elections, control of Congress is about to change hands. Market participants feel insecure, and most are choosing to wait and see. The Binance hack was also the biggest shock recently. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have seen sustained outflows. All of this has further intensified short-term volatility.
My view: We are in a bull market now. Even if this time wasn’t an early bottom, we are already on that path. From now until next year, there is a clear window for accumulating in stages.
Short-term noise won’t redefine the cycle.
2013–2015: 406 days, falling from around $1,100 to $170
2017–2018: 364 days, falling from nearly $20,000 to $3,200
2021–2022: 378 days, falling from around $69,000 to $15,700
2025–2026: From the August 2025 peak to the May 2026 bottom, the period was clearly shorter than in previous cycles
All three complete cycles fell within the 364–406-day range, driven by common factors: liquidity contraction after the halving + declining risk appetite + leveraged positions being flushed out.
This time, the period was shorter and the drawdown was also shallower, reflecting the objective impact of structural changes in the market following the introduction of ETFs.
The current environment: After the midterm elections, control of Congress is about to change hands. Market participants feel insecure, and most are choosing to wait and see. The Binance hack was also the biggest shock recently. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have seen sustained outflows. All of this has further intensified short-term volatility.
My view: We are in a bull market now. Even if this time wasn’t an early bottom, we are already on that path. From now until next year, there is a clear window for accumulating in stages.
Short-term noise won’t redefine the cycle.
