During Bitcoin’s climb from $60,000 to $87,000, Americans were actually selling the whole time—$BTC Bitcoin traded for less on U.S. exchanges than globally for 62 straight days.
The Coinbase Premium Index measures the price gap for the same Bitcoin on Coinbase and Binance: a positive reading means stronger U.S. buying, while a negative reading means heavier selling in the U.S. CryptoQuant’s analysis on November 3 put it plainly: U.S. investors have barely shown up on the buy side of Bitcoin for nearly a year. The index has been negative almost continuously since the end of last year, and the stretch of negative readings that began this summer is the longest on record.
The numbers tell the story: as of November 5, there had been 62 consecutive days without a single close above the global price. That day, the discount was -0.156%; the seven-day average was -0.170%; and it reached a low of -0.271% on October 29. On August 27, it briefly turned positive at +0.032%.
The most counterintuitive part came in September: Bitcoin climbed from $60,000 to $87,000, yet the premium stayed negative the entire time. U.S. buyers didn’t drive that rally—the demand came from elsewhere. On the other hand, the discount is narrowing: from -0.24% on October 30 to -0.15% by November 3. CryptoQuant’s CEO noted that the reading had fallen to a nearly four-year low. The last time it was this low was around November 2022, which coincided with the cycle bottom. His exact words were that market sentiment had become so pessimistic that it could actually be a reason to turn bullish.
This whale’s take: The absence of U.S. buyers explains why this rally feels shaky—the price can rise, but the strongest spot buying hasn’t returned. A narrowing discount is an encouraging sign, but until it turns positive, treat any rally as borrowed momentum. There’s only one signal this whale is watching: can the premium hold above zero? If it does, U.S. demand is truly back; if not, the $75,000–$76,000 range may remain a battleground.
The Coinbase Premium Index measures the price gap for the same Bitcoin on Coinbase and Binance: a positive reading means stronger U.S. buying, while a negative reading means heavier selling in the U.S. CryptoQuant’s analysis on November 3 put it plainly: U.S. investors have barely shown up on the buy side of Bitcoin for nearly a year. The index has been negative almost continuously since the end of last year, and the stretch of negative readings that began this summer is the longest on record.
The numbers tell the story: as of November 5, there had been 62 consecutive days without a single close above the global price. That day, the discount was -0.156%; the seven-day average was -0.170%; and it reached a low of -0.271% on October 29. On August 27, it briefly turned positive at +0.032%.
The most counterintuitive part came in September: Bitcoin climbed from $60,000 to $87,000, yet the premium stayed negative the entire time. U.S. buyers didn’t drive that rally—the demand came from elsewhere. On the other hand, the discount is narrowing: from -0.24% on October 30 to -0.15% by November 3. CryptoQuant’s CEO noted that the reading had fallen to a nearly four-year low. The last time it was this low was around November 2022, which coincided with the cycle bottom. His exact words were that market sentiment had become so pessimistic that it could actually be a reason to turn bullish.
This whale’s take: The absence of U.S. buyers explains why this rally feels shaky—the price can rise, but the strongest spot buying hasn’t returned. A narrowing discount is an encouraging sign, but until it turns positive, treat any rally as borrowed momentum. There’s only one signal this whale is watching: can the premium hold above zero? If it does, U.S. demand is truly back; if not, the $75,000–$76,000 range may remain a battleground.
