Nonfarm payrolls: 165,000, 2.5x expectations! Just released at 21:30, and BTC is still range-bound, waiting for the close
Tonight’s October nonfarm payrolls report, released at 21:30, came in much stronger than anyone had expected.
The U.S. added 165,000 nonfarm jobs in October, versus Reuters’ forecast of 65,000 and The Wall Street Journal’s forecast of 59,000. The actual figure was about 2.5 times expectations—roughly 100,000 more—and even exceeded the top of Reuters’ entire forecast range of 35,000 to 125,000. Unemployment was 4.1%, versus expectations of 4.2% and a previous reading of 4.2%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month over month, against expectations of 0.3%, and were up 3.1% year over year. MarketWatch says this was the biggest monthly wage increase in nearly a year. August and September were also revised up by a combined 84,000, meaning the previous two months were not as weak as initially thought.
Sources: WSJ, Barron's, and MarketWatch independently corroborate the figures; the payroll gain and unemployment rate are consistent across sources.
$BTC The initial reaction was muted. At the time of writing, Binance spot was around 75,750 and OKX perpetuals around 75,721—a 0.04% difference between the two sources. During the 21:00 hour, the price briefly dipped to 75,600; the 20:00 close was 76,039.72. It’s still within the 75,568–77,620 range outlined in this evening’s market view, with no breakout. $ETH was around 2,232, down about 6.6% over 24 hours; $SOL was around 90.25, down about 5.4%. Both are following the market, with no independent move.
My take: This nonfarm report is hawkish, with strong employment and hot wage growth. Based on past patterns, it could raise the odds of a December rate hike, which is bad news for risk assets. But don’t rush to conclusions—the WSJ also noted that the Fed is now more focused on inflation. A December rate hike was already largely priced in, so the jobs report is more a confirmation than a change in course. The next real judge will be the November 10 CPI report. I haven’t verified the latest post-report rate-hike odds yet, so I won’t make up a figure; I’ll report it once confirmed.
The key is where this one-hour candle closes at 22:00: a close below 75,568 would confirm a three-month low—the market held on through a day in the range, but then broke down. A close back above 76,000 would mean more grinding within the range, with CPI still to come. U.S. stocks don’t open until 22:30, so the direction could change at any moment before the close. Don’t chase the move before the first post-payrolls close confirms it.
Risk warning: The payrolls report is a one-off impulse. The 22:00 close and the U.S. market open are the real tests; don’t place a trade based on a single intraday wick.
With payrolls this strong, do you think $BTC will use the opportunity tonight to break down out of the range, or has the bad news already been priced in, with prices stabilizing ahead of CPI?
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC #非农 #美联储 #比特币 #CPI
Tonight’s October nonfarm payrolls report, released at 21:30, came in much stronger than anyone had expected.
The U.S. added 165,000 nonfarm jobs in October, versus Reuters’ forecast of 65,000 and The Wall Street Journal’s forecast of 59,000. The actual figure was about 2.5 times expectations—roughly 100,000 more—and even exceeded the top of Reuters’ entire forecast range of 35,000 to 125,000. Unemployment was 4.1%, versus expectations of 4.2% and a previous reading of 4.2%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month over month, against expectations of 0.3%, and were up 3.1% year over year. MarketWatch says this was the biggest monthly wage increase in nearly a year. August and September were also revised up by a combined 84,000, meaning the previous two months were not as weak as initially thought.
Sources: WSJ, Barron's, and MarketWatch independently corroborate the figures; the payroll gain and unemployment rate are consistent across sources.
$BTC The initial reaction was muted. At the time of writing, Binance spot was around 75,750 and OKX perpetuals around 75,721—a 0.04% difference between the two sources. During the 21:00 hour, the price briefly dipped to 75,600; the 20:00 close was 76,039.72. It’s still within the 75,568–77,620 range outlined in this evening’s market view, with no breakout. $ETH was around 2,232, down about 6.6% over 24 hours; $SOL was around 90.25, down about 5.4%. Both are following the market, with no independent move.
My take: This nonfarm report is hawkish, with strong employment and hot wage growth. Based on past patterns, it could raise the odds of a December rate hike, which is bad news for risk assets. But don’t rush to conclusions—the WSJ also noted that the Fed is now more focused on inflation. A December rate hike was already largely priced in, so the jobs report is more a confirmation than a change in course. The next real judge will be the November 10 CPI report. I haven’t verified the latest post-report rate-hike odds yet, so I won’t make up a figure; I’ll report it once confirmed.
The key is where this one-hour candle closes at 22:00: a close below 75,568 would confirm a three-month low—the market held on through a day in the range, but then broke down. A close back above 76,000 would mean more grinding within the range, with CPI still to come. U.S. stocks don’t open until 22:30, so the direction could change at any moment before the close. Don’t chase the move before the first post-payrolls close confirms it.
Risk warning: The payrolls report is a one-off impulse. The 22:00 close and the U.S. market open are the real tests; don’t place a trade based on a single intraday wick.
With payrolls this strong, do you think $BTC will use the opportunity tonight to break down out of the range, or has the bad news already been priced in, with prices stabilizing ahead of CPI?
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC #非农 #美联储 #比特币 #CPI