**US unemployment fell to 4.1% in October, and spot gold dropped more than $30 an ounce to $4,042.** 📉
The Bureau of Labor Statistics report beat expectations on two fronts. The jobless rate came in below the 4.2% forecast and the 4.2% prior reading.
Revisions added to the strength:
- August payrolls were revised from +133K to +186K.
- September payrolls were revised from +29K to +60K.
- Together that is 84K more jobs than first reported.
Strong data matters here because the Fed raised rates on Sept 16, its first hike since 2023, under Chair Kevin Warsh. A tight labor market gives the Fed room to keep going. Short-term rate futures fell after the release, and traders added bets on another hike in December.
Gold doesn't pay yield, so higher-for-longer rates hurt it first. Canada went the other way: its unemployment rate edged up to a six-month high, which shows a growing split between the two economies.
For $BTC, a December hike would mean tighter liquidity and a stronger dollar, which usually pressures risk assets. My view is that the revisions matter more than the headline, because they show the labor market was stronger than the Fed thought when it hiked. Will the next CPI print confirm a December hike?
#NFP #Fed #InterestRates
The Bureau of Labor Statistics report beat expectations on two fronts. The jobless rate came in below the 4.2% forecast and the 4.2% prior reading.
Revisions added to the strength:
- August payrolls were revised from +133K to +186K.
- September payrolls were revised from +29K to +60K.
- Together that is 84K more jobs than first reported.
Strong data matters here because the Fed raised rates on Sept 16, its first hike since 2023, under Chair Kevin Warsh. A tight labor market gives the Fed room to keep going. Short-term rate futures fell after the release, and traders added bets on another hike in December.
Gold doesn't pay yield, so higher-for-longer rates hurt it first. Canada went the other way: its unemployment rate edged up to a six-month high, which shows a growing split between the two economies.
For $BTC, a December hike would mean tighter liquidity and a stronger dollar, which usually pressures risk assets. My view is that the revisions matter more than the headline, because they show the labor market was stronger than the Fed thought when it hiked. Will the next CPI print confirm a December hike?
#NFP #Fed #InterestRates
