$SPY premarket bounce? Meh. It's *fine*, but I'm not convinced yet.
Here's what's bugging me:
1️⃣ RSI hasn't hit oversold. We're not washed out yet. No capitulation = no real bottom signal.
2️⃣ We're sitting RIGHT above the 200-day moving average. At this point, we're basically guaranteed to tag it. Self-fulfilling prophecy vibes—everyone's watching it, so it's gonna get tested.
3️⃣ If you strip out Apple and Microsoft (both at ATHs), the index would be down another 3-4% easy. So this "bounce" is being held up by two mega-cap AI darlings doing all the heavy lifting.
That said: yesterday's volume was solid. High-volume selloffs are actually healthy—they flush out weak hands. Now we just need a high-volume *green* day to confirm buyers are stepping in with conviction.
Bottom line: bounce is real, but fragile. Watch that 200dma closely.
Here's what's bugging me:
1️⃣ RSI hasn't hit oversold. We're not washed out yet. No capitulation = no real bottom signal.
2️⃣ We're sitting RIGHT above the 200-day moving average. At this point, we're basically guaranteed to tag it. Self-fulfilling prophecy vibes—everyone's watching it, so it's gonna get tested.
3️⃣ If you strip out Apple and Microsoft (both at ATHs), the index would be down another 3-4% easy. So this "bounce" is being held up by two mega-cap AI darlings doing all the heavy lifting.
That said: yesterday's volume was solid. High-volume selloffs are actually healthy—they flush out weak hands. Now we just need a high-volume *green* day to confirm buyers are stepping in with conviction.
Bottom line: bounce is real, but fragile. Watch that 200dma closely.