Does the Nasdaq always rebound after a sharp sell-off? Tonight’s U.S. jobs report: Can U.S. stocks make a comeback?
U.S. stocks have certainly been making investors nervous lately.
The Nasdaq has continued to pull back, AI and tech stocks are under pressure, and risk appetite has cooled noticeably. Bitcoin has also been dragged down by the decline in U.S. stocks, putting renewed pressure on its earlier rebound.
But interestingly, whenever the market goes through a bout of concentrated selling, expectations of an oversold bounce gradually grow.
At 21:30 tonight, the U.S. October nonfarm payrolls report is due to be released. It could be an important catalyst for a short-term market turning point.
There are three key figures to watch tonight:
* Nonfarm payrolls: Market expectation: 65,000.
* Unemployment rate: Market expectation: 4.2%.
* Average hourly earnings, month over month: Market expectation: 0.3%.
So, what might happen tonight?
① If nonfarm payrolls come in below expectations, the labor market would be cooling and wage growth would slow at the same time. Markets may once again ramp up expectations for rate cuts, potentially paving the way for a recovery rally in U.S. stocks.
② If nonfarm payrolls significantly exceed expectations, that would suggest the labor market remains strong. Rate-cut expectations may cool, Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar could strengthen, and tech stocks may remain under pressure.
③ If the data broadly meet expectations, the market may return to weighing the valuations of AI and tech stocks, corporate earnings, and fund flows.
What I’m personally watching most closely is whether this pullback in U.S. stocks has already flushed out enough risk.
If tonight’s data give the market a positive signal, and tech stocks have already undergone a sizable correction, the Nasdaq could see a technical rebound.
And if U.S. stocks stabilize, that could also provide some sentiment support for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
Of course, being oversold doesn’t mean the market has bottomed, and a rebound doesn’t mean the trend has reversed.
At 21:30 tonight, the market may be facing a new directional crossroads.
Do you think the Nasdaq will rebound this time, or keep falling in search of support?
U.S. stocks have certainly been making investors nervous lately.
The Nasdaq has continued to pull back, AI and tech stocks are under pressure, and risk appetite has cooled noticeably. Bitcoin has also been dragged down by the decline in U.S. stocks, putting renewed pressure on its earlier rebound.
But interestingly, whenever the market goes through a bout of concentrated selling, expectations of an oversold bounce gradually grow.
At 21:30 tonight, the U.S. October nonfarm payrolls report is due to be released. It could be an important catalyst for a short-term market turning point.
There are three key figures to watch tonight:
* Nonfarm payrolls: Market expectation: 65,000.
* Unemployment rate: Market expectation: 4.2%.
* Average hourly earnings, month over month: Market expectation: 0.3%.
So, what might happen tonight?
① If nonfarm payrolls come in below expectations, the labor market would be cooling and wage growth would slow at the same time. Markets may once again ramp up expectations for rate cuts, potentially paving the way for a recovery rally in U.S. stocks.
② If nonfarm payrolls significantly exceed expectations, that would suggest the labor market remains strong. Rate-cut expectations may cool, Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar could strengthen, and tech stocks may remain under pressure.
③ If the data broadly meet expectations, the market may return to weighing the valuations of AI and tech stocks, corporate earnings, and fund flows.
What I’m personally watching most closely is whether this pullback in U.S. stocks has already flushed out enough risk.
If tonight’s data give the market a positive signal, and tech stocks have already undergone a sizable correction, the Nasdaq could see a technical rebound.
And if U.S. stocks stabilize, that could also provide some sentiment support for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
Of course, being oversold doesn’t mean the market has bottomed, and a rebound doesn’t mean the trend has reversed.
At 21:30 tonight, the market may be facing a new directional crossroads.
Do you think the Nasdaq will rebound this time, or keep falling in search of support?
