ETF outflows were actually $430 million! BTC spent the whole day stuck in a narrow range; tonight at 21:30, nonfarm payrolls will set the direction
First, a correction: I got a figure wrong in my midday post. Thursday’s U.S. spot BTC ETFs did not see net outflows of $68.8 million. Farside’s complete figures, after IBIT’s late report, show net outflows of $430.2 million: Fidelity’s FBTC led with -$199.9 million, BlackRock’s IBIT saw -$105 million, and Grayscale’s GBTC -$49.9 million. ETH also saw outflows of about $100 million, led by ETHA at -$75.2 million. Wednesday’s $74.6 million in inflows lasted just one day; net outflows over the first four trading days of November totaled about $869.8 million. A wrong number is a wrong number. I’ll own it here.
As for the market during the day, it was simply a waiting game. BTC is now around 76,060, down 4.5% over 24 hours; ETH is around 2,238 (-6.5%), and SOL around 90.3 (-5.2%). From 08:00 to 19:00, all twelve hourly closes were stuck in a narrow 75,568–77,620 range: the 12:00 close was 75,765, 15:00 was 75,615, 17:00 was 76,185, and 19:00 was 76,147. The low held, the upper bound wasn’t tested, and the market went nowhere all day.
The 16:00 options event has also passed. About $2.65 billion in BTC options expired on Deribit, with max pain at 79,000, but the price didn’t even come close: BTC closed at 75,680 at 16:00, and there wasn’t even a meaningful move around expiry. Expiry wasn’t a catalyst—at least not today.
Leverage has been unusually quiet too. OKX perpetual funding rates: BTC around 0.0063%, ETH around -0.0027%, and SOL around 0.0055%—all hovering near zero. BTC open interest is around 3.51 million contracts (about 35,100 BTC, or roughly $2.67 billion), essentially unchanged from midday. No one is piling into longs, and no one is rushing for the exits—everyone is waiting for 21:30 tonight.
The mood ahead of the U.S. session is one of “polite recovery,” not a reversal. Nasdaq 100 futures are up about 1.4% (around 27,135), and S&P futures are up about 0.2–0.3%, but Dow futures are still down around 0.9%. The chip stocks that were hit hardest yesterday are recovering premarket: Nvidia +3.6–4.5%, AMD +8%, Micron +8%, and SanDisk +10–12%. Meanwhile, Germany’s DAX is still down about 2.4%, and the Nikkei has entered a bear market (down more than 20% from its June high). The rebound is concentrated in the stocks that fell hardest yesterday—don’t rush to call a bottom.
Tonight at 21:30, October nonfarm payrolls are due. Reuters expects 65,000 jobs added (another estimate puts it at 59,000), unemployment at 4.2%, and hourly earnings up 0.3% month over month; September saw just 29,000 jobs added. CME data shows the probability of a December rate hike has climbed above 65–70%. The implication is straightforward: strong employment would firm up rate-hike bets and put more pressure on risk assets; weak employment would cool those bets and give the rebound a chance. Nonfarm payrolls are the only judge tonight; that little futures rebound means nothing in comparison.
My invalidation levels are unchanged: if the hourly close moves above 77,620, I’ll retract last night’s “recovery confirmed” call; if it closes below 75,568, the three-month low is confirmed and the lower-range outlook is back in play. After the payrolls report, watch the first hourly close—not the intraday spike.
A quick note on altcoins: CYBER +48.8% (around 0.372), ONE +31.7% (around 0.00145). Two rounds of searches found no catalyst for either move today, so by my rules, I’m not chasing. LSK is around 0.1867, with all nine closes from 12:00 to 20:00 below 0.1919, so the discount continues. HUMA hit a new 24-hour low of 0.01287 intraday.
Risk warning: Volatility could be high around the nonfarm payrolls release. Sharp wicks in either direction are normal once the data comes out, so don’t chase orders in the minute it’s released. This is just my own market commentary, not investment advice. You are responsible for your own gains and losses.
After tonight’s payrolls report, which side are you on: stronger-than-expected data, with BTC first sliding toward 75,568, or weaker data, with BTC first surging toward 77,620?
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC #ETH #比特币 #非农 #ETF
First, a correction: I got a figure wrong in my midday post. Thursday’s U.S. spot BTC ETFs did not see net outflows of $68.8 million. Farside’s complete figures, after IBIT’s late report, show net outflows of $430.2 million: Fidelity’s FBTC led with -$199.9 million, BlackRock’s IBIT saw -$105 million, and Grayscale’s GBTC -$49.9 million. ETH also saw outflows of about $100 million, led by ETHA at -$75.2 million. Wednesday’s $74.6 million in inflows lasted just one day; net outflows over the first four trading days of November totaled about $869.8 million. A wrong number is a wrong number. I’ll own it here.
As for the market during the day, it was simply a waiting game. BTC is now around 76,060, down 4.5% over 24 hours; ETH is around 2,238 (-6.5%), and SOL around 90.3 (-5.2%). From 08:00 to 19:00, all twelve hourly closes were stuck in a narrow 75,568–77,620 range: the 12:00 close was 75,765, 15:00 was 75,615, 17:00 was 76,185, and 19:00 was 76,147. The low held, the upper bound wasn’t tested, and the market went nowhere all day.
The 16:00 options event has also passed. About $2.65 billion in BTC options expired on Deribit, with max pain at 79,000, but the price didn’t even come close: BTC closed at 75,680 at 16:00, and there wasn’t even a meaningful move around expiry. Expiry wasn’t a catalyst—at least not today.
Leverage has been unusually quiet too. OKX perpetual funding rates: BTC around 0.0063%, ETH around -0.0027%, and SOL around 0.0055%—all hovering near zero. BTC open interest is around 3.51 million contracts (about 35,100 BTC, or roughly $2.67 billion), essentially unchanged from midday. No one is piling into longs, and no one is rushing for the exits—everyone is waiting for 21:30 tonight.
The mood ahead of the U.S. session is one of “polite recovery,” not a reversal. Nasdaq 100 futures are up about 1.4% (around 27,135), and S&P futures are up about 0.2–0.3%, but Dow futures are still down around 0.9%. The chip stocks that were hit hardest yesterday are recovering premarket: Nvidia +3.6–4.5%, AMD +8%, Micron +8%, and SanDisk +10–12%. Meanwhile, Germany’s DAX is still down about 2.4%, and the Nikkei has entered a bear market (down more than 20% from its June high). The rebound is concentrated in the stocks that fell hardest yesterday—don’t rush to call a bottom.
Tonight at 21:30, October nonfarm payrolls are due. Reuters expects 65,000 jobs added (another estimate puts it at 59,000), unemployment at 4.2%, and hourly earnings up 0.3% month over month; September saw just 29,000 jobs added. CME data shows the probability of a December rate hike has climbed above 65–70%. The implication is straightforward: strong employment would firm up rate-hike bets and put more pressure on risk assets; weak employment would cool those bets and give the rebound a chance. Nonfarm payrolls are the only judge tonight; that little futures rebound means nothing in comparison.
My invalidation levels are unchanged: if the hourly close moves above 77,620, I’ll retract last night’s “recovery confirmed” call; if it closes below 75,568, the three-month low is confirmed and the lower-range outlook is back in play. After the payrolls report, watch the first hourly close—not the intraday spike.
A quick note on altcoins: CYBER +48.8% (around 0.372), ONE +31.7% (around 0.00145). Two rounds of searches found no catalyst for either move today, so by my rules, I’m not chasing. LSK is around 0.1867, with all nine closes from 12:00 to 20:00 below 0.1919, so the discount continues. HUMA hit a new 24-hour low of 0.01287 intraday.
Risk warning: Volatility could be high around the nonfarm payrolls release. Sharp wicks in either direction are normal once the data comes out, so don’t chase orders in the minute it’s released. This is just my own market commentary, not investment advice. You are responsible for your own gains and losses.
After tonight’s payrolls report, which side are you on: stronger-than-expected data, with BTC first sliding toward 75,568, or weaker data, with BTC first surging toward 77,620?
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC #ETH #比特币 #非农 #ETF
