Sometimes, even when I’m taking a short-term short position, I still look at the long-term fundamentals. If the short turns out to be wrong, I’ll still have a chance to make it back. Today I mentioned shorting $ARB , so let me explain the reasoning behind it.

ARB’s biggest problem isn’t a lack of ecosystem growth. It’s the lack of an effective mechanism to pass that growth through to the token’s value.

From a valuation perspective, based on simply annualizing DAO revenue for the first half of 2026, the revenue multiple implied by ARB’s circulating market cap is still over 90x. The price may look like it has fallen a lot, but in reality, it’s still very expensive.

More importantly, even if the Arbitrum network makes money, that doesn’t mean ARB holders do.

ARB currently has no clear mechanism for distributing revenue to token holders. Network fees, licensing revenue, and ecosystem growth can’t be directly converted into returns for token holders.

That’s why I chose ARB for my short position.

If the token can’t capture value, why should investors keep assigning it a high valuation?

I care about the token’s value, not the blockchain’s story.