#美股走弱，加密货币市场普遍承压
1.5 rate hikes have already been priced in by the market 🦖
On November 6, the strategy team at Indosuez Wealth Management publicly warned that markets are pricing in a much more hawkish path for Federal Reserve and European Central Bank rates than their base case
⚡ 有大动静群里说
Money markets are now betting on around 1.5 more Fed rate hikes and two ECB hikes over the next 12 months.
In other words, everyone has already treated the toughest path as the default scenario.
The reasoning is that economic growth will remain stable and inflation will gradually return to normal, limiting the central banks’ scope for further tightening.
But they also acknowledged that this scenario will only hold if enough data showing moderate core inflation and economic growth comes through. Until then, bond markets will remain volatile.
The subtext is clear: hawkish pricing won’t be overturned by a single report. It will gradually fade with time.
The backdrop is anything but easy. U.S. CPI has been above the 2% target for 67 consecutive months, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.845% yesterday, still near a nine-week low 📊
The bond market has effectively voted first. Yields haven’t surged along with rate-hike expectations, suggesting investors are buying safety, not growth.
The crypto market is already paying the price for tighter policy. Bitcoin is at $75,561, down 6.10% over 24 hours; Ethereum is at $2,226, down 8.04% 📉
More than $1 billion in positions were liquidated across the crypto market in the past 24 hours. Bitcoin has pulled back around 40% from its all-time high of $126,080.
What really matters isn’t today’s red candle, but the U.S. October jobs data due at 9:30 p.m. tonight ⏰
The market expects a 4.2% unemployment rate and 65,000 new nonfarm jobs.
If the data is soft, expectations for 1.5 rate hikes will be repriced, and risk assets will rebound first.
If the data is strong, the rate-hike narrative will be confirmed, and the $75,000 level will be tested again.
My view is that the market is treating rate hikes as a foregone conclusion, but the signals from bonds and stocks are inconsistent.
Yields are low, suggesting some investors are worried about growth rather than inflation.
This divergence won’t be resolved by a report. It will take a data release.
Do you think tonight’s nonfarm payrolls report will bring rate-hike expectations down, or lock them in? Share your thoughts in the comments.
Follow me for daily updates on Fed and crypto market developments. I’ll help you understand not just what’s happening, but also the logic and opportunities behind it 👀🚀
Tap my profile picture to watch the livestream
1.5 rate hikes have already been priced in by the market 🦖
On November 6, the strategy team at Indosuez Wealth Management publicly warned that markets are pricing in a much more hawkish path for Federal Reserve and European Central Bank rates than their base case
⚡ 有大动静群里说
Money markets are now betting on around 1.5 more Fed rate hikes and two ECB hikes over the next 12 months.
In other words, everyone has already treated the toughest path as the default scenario.
The reasoning is that economic growth will remain stable and inflation will gradually return to normal, limiting the central banks’ scope for further tightening.
But they also acknowledged that this scenario will only hold if enough data showing moderate core inflation and economic growth comes through. Until then, bond markets will remain volatile.
The subtext is clear: hawkish pricing won’t be overturned by a single report. It will gradually fade with time.
The backdrop is anything but easy. U.S. CPI has been above the 2% target for 67 consecutive months, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.845% yesterday, still near a nine-week low 📊
The bond market has effectively voted first. Yields haven’t surged along with rate-hike expectations, suggesting investors are buying safety, not growth.
The crypto market is already paying the price for tighter policy. Bitcoin is at $75,561, down 6.10% over 24 hours; Ethereum is at $2,226, down 8.04% 📉
More than $1 billion in positions were liquidated across the crypto market in the past 24 hours. Bitcoin has pulled back around 40% from its all-time high of $126,080.
What really matters isn’t today’s red candle, but the U.S. October jobs data due at 9:30 p.m. tonight ⏰
The market expects a 4.2% unemployment rate and 65,000 new nonfarm jobs.
If the data is soft, expectations for 1.5 rate hikes will be repriced, and risk assets will rebound first.
If the data is strong, the rate-hike narrative will be confirmed, and the $75,000 level will be tested again.
My view is that the market is treating rate hikes as a foregone conclusion, but the signals from bonds and stocks are inconsistent.
Yields are low, suggesting some investors are worried about growth rather than inflation.
This divergence won’t be resolved by a report. It will take a data release.
Do you think tonight’s nonfarm payrolls report will bring rate-hike expectations down, or lock them in? Share your thoughts in the comments.
Follow me for daily updates on Fed and crypto market developments. I’ll help you understand not just what’s happening, but also the logic and opportunities behind it 👀🚀
Tap my profile picture to watch the livestream