Yesterday was the worst day for U.S. tech stocks in a year, with the Nasdaq falling 5.52%. Today, it’s Anthropic’s IPO facing questions about its price.
According to Reuters today, it was supposed to start its roadshow next week and go public sometime in November, with the offering potentially reaching $100 billion. But institutions think a $1.5 trillion valuation is too expensive and want a discount before they’ll subscribe.
Think about it: at the start of the year, people were saying it could be worth $2 trillion. Now even $1.5 trillion is considered too expensive. It’s not that Claude isn’t good—it’s a question of price.
The prospectus says third-quarter revenue was $17 billion, growth had already slowed from triple digits to 47%, and the company still lost $567 million. Even more striking: it has committed to at least $518 billion in cloud and infrastructure spending over the next decade, and 80% of that is unavoidable. Blackstone has also changed its tune: after going public, Anthropic is unlikely to get an investment-grade rating and will probably be rated BB, or junk bond status.
Put simply, a good company ≠ a good stock. Claude really is useful, but a $1.5 trillion price assumes a decade of uninterrupted growth. The market has just taken a hit—who would dare buy at the highest price without thinking twice?
Crypto traders have already made a move: its pre-IPO futures on MEXC are still hovering around $1,500, which is pure sentiment pricing.
Whether next week’s roadshow goes ahead and how much the IPO price is discounted will be a test for AI valuations. If it fails, AI stocks will have to look lower for support.
I’m not taking sides or guessing what it’s worth. I’ll just say this: even the best company has to ask whether its current price is too high.
#AnthropicIPOValuationDoubts
$NVDA $BTC
According to Reuters today, it was supposed to start its roadshow next week and go public sometime in November, with the offering potentially reaching $100 billion. But institutions think a $1.5 trillion valuation is too expensive and want a discount before they’ll subscribe.
Think about it: at the start of the year, people were saying it could be worth $2 trillion. Now even $1.5 trillion is considered too expensive. It’s not that Claude isn’t good—it’s a question of price.
The prospectus says third-quarter revenue was $17 billion, growth had already slowed from triple digits to 47%, and the company still lost $567 million. Even more striking: it has committed to at least $518 billion in cloud and infrastructure spending over the next decade, and 80% of that is unavoidable. Blackstone has also changed its tune: after going public, Anthropic is unlikely to get an investment-grade rating and will probably be rated BB, or junk bond status.
Put simply, a good company ≠ a good stock. Claude really is useful, but a $1.5 trillion price assumes a decade of uninterrupted growth. The market has just taken a hit—who would dare buy at the highest price without thinking twice?
Crypto traders have already made a move: its pre-IPO futures on MEXC are still hovering around $1,500, which is pure sentiment pricing.
Whether next week’s roadshow goes ahead and how much the IPO price is discounted will be a test for AI valuations. If it fails, AI stocks will have to look lower for support.
I’m not taking sides or guessing what it’s worth. I’ll just say this: even the best company has to ask whether its current price is too high.
#AnthropicIPOValuationDoubts
$NVDA $BTC
