Bitcoin climbed to $125K and then fell to $60K. Retail investors were nowhere to be seen in either move.

CryptoQuant's indicator lights up when the frequency of small trades on spot exchanges surges. Red marks periods when retail investors flood into the market, while green marks periods when they pull back.

The last colored signal appeared in March 2024. As Bitcoin crossed $70K for the first time, the chart turned bright red; retail rushed in right at that local top. The price then moved sideways between $60K and $70K for months.

Similar red clusters appeared in 2022, but at the bottom. As the price fell to $20K and dropped to $16K during the FTX collapse, retail investors were trading in panic. The same crowd, the same frenzy, at both the top and the bottom.

Two and a half years have passed since then, and the chart has remained entirely gray. There was no retail-driven trading surge at the $125K peak in 2025, nor at the $60K low in 2026.

The timing is notable. The last red signals coincide with the months when spot Bitcoin ETFs began trading in the U.S. Today, a significant share of retail investors may be buying Bitcoin through ETFs in brokerage accounts rather than on exchanges. Those trades do not appear on this chart.

Perhaps retail never left. It may simply be trading somewhere this chart cannot see.

Written by BaykusCharts