BTC at 75.8K at midday: all four morning hourly closes stuck in the narrow 75.55K–77.6K range; ETF inflows lasted just one day before flipping back to outflows
$BTC was around 75,780 at midday, down about 5.9% over 24 hours. The morning’s “invalidation remains in effect, low held” scenario played out: the four hourly closes from 08:00 to 11:00 were 76,333, 76,130, 76,196, and 75,913—all within the narrow 75,568–77,620 range, with neither a break below the floor nor a test of the ceiling. No direction yet; price is grinding along the lower end of the range. $ETH was around 2,233 (down about 8.0% over 24 hours), and $SOL was around 89.5 (down about 6.9%); neither showed a clear direction either.
There was a small reversal on the ETF front: on Thursday (November 5), US spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of $68.8 million (per Farside, led by $49.9 million in outflows from GBTC and $18.9 million from ARKB). Wednesday’s $74.6 million in inflows lasted just one day before flows flipped back to outflows. IBIT saw another $201.2 million in outflows on Wednesday, bringing its four-day outflow total to $935.2 million. Institutional money didn’t step in to catch this drop, so don’t rush to treat yesterday’s “outflow wave has stopped” as a reversal signal.
One more correction: this morning I suspected the liquidation figure in the overnight post might have been misread due to a misplaced decimal. I’ve double-checked: the CoinGlass figure in the overnight post—about $1.03 billion over 24 hours—was correct. Multiple media outlets citing the same data agree (about $1.03–1.08 billion, around 210,000 traders, roughly 88% long positions). I was the one who got confused doing the conversion this morning, so I’m correcting the record here.
Derivatives are quiet: BTC funding at 0.0028% and ETH at 0.0038%, both near zero; open interest is slightly up, with no crowded positioning—no fuel for a short squeeze, no panic selling, just a grind.
This afternoon, both things to watch are time-based: at 16:00, around $2.65 billion in BTC options expire on Deribit, with maximum pain at 79,000, about 4% above the current price; tonight at 21:30, the US nonfarm payrolls report is due (expected job gains of 62,000–65,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.2%).
A quick note on altcoins: CYBER is up 34% over 24 hours (around 0.34), with $8 million in trading volume, but I couldn’t find any new catalyst for today—only old news from 2023—so I’m not chasing it. LSK is down 12.8% and remains weak; HUMA is down 21%, with losses deepening after its October 27 breakout.
My take: after grinding inside the narrow range for four hours without a bounce, resistance at 77,620 is still holding, while 75,568 has only held for now. It will probably keep grinding until 16:00; direction depends on what happens after options expiry and tonight’s nonfarm payrolls report. The invalidation levels are clear: an hourly close back above 77,620 cancels the morning’s “invalidation”; a close below 75,568 confirms a three-month low and opens the way lower.
This is just my personal market commentary, not investment advice. You’re responsible for your own gains and losses. After the 16:00 options expiry, do you think $BTC will first move toward the 79K maximum-pain level, or break below 75.5K and make another leg down?
#BTC #ETH #比特币 #非农 #ETF
$BTC was around 75,780 at midday, down about 5.9% over 24 hours. The morning’s “invalidation remains in effect, low held” scenario played out: the four hourly closes from 08:00 to 11:00 were 76,333, 76,130, 76,196, and 75,913—all within the narrow 75,568–77,620 range, with neither a break below the floor nor a test of the ceiling. No direction yet; price is grinding along the lower end of the range. $ETH was around 2,233 (down about 8.0% over 24 hours), and $SOL was around 89.5 (down about 6.9%); neither showed a clear direction either.
There was a small reversal on the ETF front: on Thursday (November 5), US spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of $68.8 million (per Farside, led by $49.9 million in outflows from GBTC and $18.9 million from ARKB). Wednesday’s $74.6 million in inflows lasted just one day before flows flipped back to outflows. IBIT saw another $201.2 million in outflows on Wednesday, bringing its four-day outflow total to $935.2 million. Institutional money didn’t step in to catch this drop, so don’t rush to treat yesterday’s “outflow wave has stopped” as a reversal signal.
One more correction: this morning I suspected the liquidation figure in the overnight post might have been misread due to a misplaced decimal. I’ve double-checked: the CoinGlass figure in the overnight post—about $1.03 billion over 24 hours—was correct. Multiple media outlets citing the same data agree (about $1.03–1.08 billion, around 210,000 traders, roughly 88% long positions). I was the one who got confused doing the conversion this morning, so I’m correcting the record here.
Derivatives are quiet: BTC funding at 0.0028% and ETH at 0.0038%, both near zero; open interest is slightly up, with no crowded positioning—no fuel for a short squeeze, no panic selling, just a grind.
This afternoon, both things to watch are time-based: at 16:00, around $2.65 billion in BTC options expire on Deribit, with maximum pain at 79,000, about 4% above the current price; tonight at 21:30, the US nonfarm payrolls report is due (expected job gains of 62,000–65,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.2%).
A quick note on altcoins: CYBER is up 34% over 24 hours (around 0.34), with $8 million in trading volume, but I couldn’t find any new catalyst for today—only old news from 2023—so I’m not chasing it. LSK is down 12.8% and remains weak; HUMA is down 21%, with losses deepening after its October 27 breakout.
My take: after grinding inside the narrow range for four hours without a bounce, resistance at 77,620 is still holding, while 75,568 has only held for now. It will probably keep grinding until 16:00; direction depends on what happens after options expiry and tonight’s nonfarm payrolls report. The invalidation levels are clear: an hourly close back above 77,620 cancels the morning’s “invalidation”; a close below 75,568 confirms a three-month low and opens the way lower.
This is just my personal market commentary, not investment advice. You’re responsible for your own gains and losses. After the 16:00 options expiry, do you think $BTC will first move toward the 79K maximum-pain level, or break below 75.5K and make another leg down?
#BTC #ETH #比特币 #非农 #ETF
