📊 Unemployment is at 4.2% because the denominator is shrinking
Nonfarm payrolls are out tonight at 21:30. Dow Jones expects 59,000, versus 29,000 in September. FactSet forecasts 65,000. The unemployment rate is expected to be 4.2%, unchanged from September.
Put the three figures together and this report looks neither hot nor cold. From January 2025 through this September, monthly job gains averaged 35,000. In those 21 months, only one topped 200,000, and seven were negative. Yet the unemployment rate rose just 0.2 percentage points.
The reason isn’t in the numerator. The labor force is down 434,000 from a year ago, and nearly 1 million from a year earlier. The participation rate fell to 61.8%, down 0.8 percentage points. When people stop coming in to look for work, the denominator gets smaller, and the same number of jobs can keep the unemployment rate down. That’s it.
4.2% doesn’t mean employment is strong. It means nobody’s lining up.
The other side is still holding up. Initial jobless claims came in at 189,000 last week, down 6,000 from the week before—the lowest since mid-July and near a 57-year low. September job openings rose by 333,000 to 7.52 million, while quits jumped from 3.04 million to 3.36 million, a 1.5-year high. Businesses aren’t laying people off, and workers still feel confident enough to leave.
What’s really getting worse is the duration. There are 495,000 more people unemployed for over 25 weeks than in January 2025. The average spell of unemployment is 24.8 weeks, up 2.8 weeks. The longer they wait, the longer it gets.
The Fed doesn’t have much reason to act based on this report. It still has to decide on December 9. Polymarket now puts the odds of a 25-basis-point hike at 65.5%, versus 31.5% for no change. A week ago, the hike odds were still 72.5%.
Last night, markets moved first. The Nasdaq fell 5.52%, its worst day since April 2025. The S&P fell 4.36% to close at 7,353.73, and the Dow dropped 1,833 points. All the gains were wiped out in a day. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 10% intraday, and Nvidia dropped 9%. The trigger was clear: Democrats won both chambers in the midterms, and most of 41 ballot measures aimed at slowing data center construction passed. The VIX climbed to 26.
It wasn’t employment expectations that fell. It was data-center permits.
BTC across five sources: 75,754–75,883, down 5.8% in 24 hours. ETH: 2,231–2,235, down 7.8%. The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.837%, down 11.5 basis points in three days. The dollar index is 101.74. Gold is at 4,053, versus yesterday’s close of 4,113.5.
The unemployment rate is a ratio, and anyone can change the denominator. Bitcoin has no denominator, only 21 million.
#中本聪国际社区Baoluo币商资本 #宏观经济 #NonfarmPayrolls
Nonfarm payrolls are out tonight at 21:30. Dow Jones expects 59,000, versus 29,000 in September. FactSet forecasts 65,000. The unemployment rate is expected to be 4.2%, unchanged from September.
Put the three figures together and this report looks neither hot nor cold. From January 2025 through this September, monthly job gains averaged 35,000. In those 21 months, only one topped 200,000, and seven were negative. Yet the unemployment rate rose just 0.2 percentage points.
The reason isn’t in the numerator. The labor force is down 434,000 from a year ago, and nearly 1 million from a year earlier. The participation rate fell to 61.8%, down 0.8 percentage points. When people stop coming in to look for work, the denominator gets smaller, and the same number of jobs can keep the unemployment rate down. That’s it.
4.2% doesn’t mean employment is strong. It means nobody’s lining up.
The other side is still holding up. Initial jobless claims came in at 189,000 last week, down 6,000 from the week before—the lowest since mid-July and near a 57-year low. September job openings rose by 333,000 to 7.52 million, while quits jumped from 3.04 million to 3.36 million, a 1.5-year high. Businesses aren’t laying people off, and workers still feel confident enough to leave.
What’s really getting worse is the duration. There are 495,000 more people unemployed for over 25 weeks than in January 2025. The average spell of unemployment is 24.8 weeks, up 2.8 weeks. The longer they wait, the longer it gets.
The Fed doesn’t have much reason to act based on this report. It still has to decide on December 9. Polymarket now puts the odds of a 25-basis-point hike at 65.5%, versus 31.5% for no change. A week ago, the hike odds were still 72.5%.
Last night, markets moved first. The Nasdaq fell 5.52%, its worst day since April 2025. The S&P fell 4.36% to close at 7,353.73, and the Dow dropped 1,833 points. All the gains were wiped out in a day. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 10% intraday, and Nvidia dropped 9%. The trigger was clear: Democrats won both chambers in the midterms, and most of 41 ballot measures aimed at slowing data center construction passed. The VIX climbed to 26.
It wasn’t employment expectations that fell. It was data-center permits.
BTC across five sources: 75,754–75,883, down 5.8% in 24 hours. ETH: 2,231–2,235, down 7.8%. The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.837%, down 11.5 basis points in three days. The dollar index is 101.74. Gold is at 4,053, versus yesterday’s close of 4,113.5.
The unemployment rate is a ratio, and anyone can change the denominator. Bitcoin has no denominator, only 21 million.
#中本聪国际社区Baoluo币商资本 #宏观经济 #NonfarmPayrolls
