The bears are here! Has the trend reversed?
The sharp reversals over the past two days have cost the market a lot of positions. BTC fell before the election, then rebounded afterward, climbing back to 81K. But sustained buying never materialized. Then U.S. tech stocks plunged, and crypto funds followed suit and pulled out. Active selling and long liquidations amplified each other. Now we're testing support at these lows again, waiting to see whether tonight's jobs report can bring buyers back.
The bulls are betting on the jobs report again tonight. The previous reading was 29,000, and the forecast is 69,000.
Fundamentals have had a big impact over the past two days. The crisis between the U.S. and Iran remains unresolved. Oil rebounded again today, gold is under pressure, and the probability of a rate hike in December remains above 86%.
The market is shrouded in negative factors, and prices remain at risk of falling in the short term.
On the technical side, the daily EMAs have formed a death cross—the first condition for a trend reversal. If the daily candle closes below 75K over the next couple of days, the trend reversal will be confirmed, and BTC could test lows in the 60Ks again.
I'm still holding a BTC long position at 78K and am underwater. If the daily candle closes below 75K, I'll have to sell everything and trade with the trend.
Although prices have fallen in this move, open interest (OI) has also declined at the same time, which clearly points to deleveraging. I hope 75K holds as support today, and that tonight's jobs report cools expectations for a December rate hike and gives the market a boost.
Waiting and watching today! $BTC
The sharp reversals over the past two days have cost the market a lot of positions. BTC fell before the election, then rebounded afterward, climbing back to 81K. But sustained buying never materialized. Then U.S. tech stocks plunged, and crypto funds followed suit and pulled out. Active selling and long liquidations amplified each other. Now we're testing support at these lows again, waiting to see whether tonight's jobs report can bring buyers back.
The bulls are betting on the jobs report again tonight. The previous reading was 29,000, and the forecast is 69,000.
Fundamentals have had a big impact over the past two days. The crisis between the U.S. and Iran remains unresolved. Oil rebounded again today, gold is under pressure, and the probability of a rate hike in December remains above 86%.
The market is shrouded in negative factors, and prices remain at risk of falling in the short term.
On the technical side, the daily EMAs have formed a death cross—the first condition for a trend reversal. If the daily candle closes below 75K over the next couple of days, the trend reversal will be confirmed, and BTC could test lows in the 60Ks again.
I'm still holding a BTC long position at 78K and am underwater. If the daily candle closes below 75K, I'll have to sell everything and trade with the trend.
Although prices have fallen in this move, open interest (OI) has also declined at the same time, which clearly points to deleveraging. I hope 75K holds as support today, and that tonight's jobs report cools expectations for a December rate hike and gives the market a boost.
Waiting and watching today! $BTC
