Moxin Observation | Bitcoin slides back to $77,000 overnight; the steepest drop came after U.S. stocks opened
Bitcoin fell from $80,000 to $77,000 tonight, hitting a low of $77,021 at 23:15, down 4.6% over 24 hours (CoinGecko, 23:18).
This is the second time this week it has fallen below $80,000. This article lays out the timelines of both drops side by side to see what each coincided with.
🐋 Tonight: the sharpest 45 minutes came after U.S. stocks opened
- It stayed above $80,000 throughout the day, peaking at $80,882 at 06:45
- It started trending lower after 20:20, trading around $79,600 when the U.S. jobless claims figures were released at 21:30
- Initial claims came in at 189,000, versus expectations of 196,000, matching the lowest level since 1969
- U.S. stocks opened at 22:30; Bitcoin fell from $79,431 to $77,021 at 23:15, losing $2,410 in 45 minutes
U.S. stocks at the same time, at 23:19 compared with yesterday’s close:
- Nasdaq: -3.78%
- Qualcomm: -9.28%
- Nvidia: -6.82%
Several market briefings this week have noted that Bitcoin has been moving closely with the Nasdaq and chip stocks. Tonight, both fell together.
🐋 Last time: the night Binance was hacked
Binance’s hot wallet was hacked in the early hours of 10/30. Binance estimated the impact at around $6.3 billion.
- At 00:00 on 10/30, Bitcoin was still at $81,692
- The first batch of XRP was transferred out at 04:05; between 04:00 and 05:00, Bitcoin fell from $80,769 to $78,763
- It hit a low of $76,666 at 10:00, down 6.2% in ten hours
Spot ETFs then saw outflows for several consecutive days: $643 million in net outflows on 10/30 and $399 million on 11/2. On 11/4, flows turned positive, with $74.6 million in net inflows: $201 million flowed out of IBIT, while $237 million flowed into FBTC.
On the morning of 11/4, while votes were being counted in the U.S. midterm elections, Bitcoin dipped to around $76,000 again. It only climbed back above $80,000 that evening, having spent nearly six days below that level. Tonight, it fell back below in just three hours.
🐋 The interest rate angle
- On 10/28, the Fed held rates at 3.75%–4.00%, with two members voting for a rate hike
- September CPI was up 3.7% year over year, compared with 3.4% in August
- Tonight’s stronger-than-expected jobless claims figures led several market briefings to the same conclusion: it will be harder for the Fed to signal a rate cut at its December 9 meeting
🐋 What to watch tomorrow
- 11/6 at 21:30: U.S. October nonfarm payrolls; FactSet expects around 65,000 new jobs and a 4.2% unemployment rate
- Spot ETF flows for 11/5: after three consecutive days of outflows ended on 11/4, will tonight’s drop be followed by continued inflows or a return to outflows?
- The 200-day moving average is near $76,500; several market briefings have identified it as the next support level
During the Binance hack, Bitcoin fell 6.2% and took nearly six days to recover to $80,000. Tonight, it dropped $2,410 in 45 minutes as soon as U.S. stocks opened. Which side are you watching more closely this week?
——
First published on X @musinoot
Bitcoin fell from $80,000 to $77,000 tonight, hitting a low of $77,021 at 23:15, down 4.6% over 24 hours (CoinGecko, 23:18).
This is the second time this week it has fallen below $80,000. This article lays out the timelines of both drops side by side to see what each coincided with.
🐋 Tonight: the sharpest 45 minutes came after U.S. stocks opened
- It stayed above $80,000 throughout the day, peaking at $80,882 at 06:45
- It started trending lower after 20:20, trading around $79,600 when the U.S. jobless claims figures were released at 21:30
- Initial claims came in at 189,000, versus expectations of 196,000, matching the lowest level since 1969
- U.S. stocks opened at 22:30; Bitcoin fell from $79,431 to $77,021 at 23:15, losing $2,410 in 45 minutes
U.S. stocks at the same time, at 23:19 compared with yesterday’s close:
- Nasdaq: -3.78%
- Qualcomm: -9.28%
- Nvidia: -6.82%
Several market briefings this week have noted that Bitcoin has been moving closely with the Nasdaq and chip stocks. Tonight, both fell together.
🐋 Last time: the night Binance was hacked
Binance’s hot wallet was hacked in the early hours of 10/30. Binance estimated the impact at around $6.3 billion.
- At 00:00 on 10/30, Bitcoin was still at $81,692
- The first batch of XRP was transferred out at 04:05; between 04:00 and 05:00, Bitcoin fell from $80,769 to $78,763
- It hit a low of $76,666 at 10:00, down 6.2% in ten hours
Spot ETFs then saw outflows for several consecutive days: $643 million in net outflows on 10/30 and $399 million on 11/2. On 11/4, flows turned positive, with $74.6 million in net inflows: $201 million flowed out of IBIT, while $237 million flowed into FBTC.
On the morning of 11/4, while votes were being counted in the U.S. midterm elections, Bitcoin dipped to around $76,000 again. It only climbed back above $80,000 that evening, having spent nearly six days below that level. Tonight, it fell back below in just three hours.
🐋 The interest rate angle
- On 10/28, the Fed held rates at 3.75%–4.00%, with two members voting for a rate hike
- September CPI was up 3.7% year over year, compared with 3.4% in August
- Tonight’s stronger-than-expected jobless claims figures led several market briefings to the same conclusion: it will be harder for the Fed to signal a rate cut at its December 9 meeting
🐋 What to watch tomorrow
- 11/6 at 21:30: U.S. October nonfarm payrolls; FactSet expects around 65,000 new jobs and a 4.2% unemployment rate
- Spot ETF flows for 11/5: after three consecutive days of outflows ended on 11/4, will tonight’s drop be followed by continued inflows or a return to outflows?
- The 200-day moving average is near $76,500; several market briefings have identified it as the next support level
During the Binance hack, Bitcoin fell 6.2% and took nearly six days to recover to $80,000. Tonight, it dropped $2,410 in 45 minutes as soon as U.S. stocks opened. Which side are you watching more closely this week?
——
First published on X @musinoot
