In 3 points
1. Weekly technicals:
Price is below all the EMAs (EMA7 1.3095 / EMA25 1.3390 / EMA200 1.3698). That's why resistance around $1.34-1.40, with support at $1.25-1.30, remains important for a recovery. It needs to close above $1.34 to invalidate the bearish setup.
2. Regulatory - the CLARITY Act is dead for now
The House had voted 294-134 on July 17, 2025, but the Senate failed to pass it on September 15, 2026, with a 49-50 vote (60 votes were needed). As of November 3, 2026, it still isn't law. No more Q2 catalyst—we're in an agency-led regulatory phase with the SEC/CFTC.
3. Fundamental - RLUSD is growing, but not on XRPL
• XRP market cap ∼$83.10B, down 12.54% over 1 month and 30.35% YTD. • RLUSD supply >$2.5B, with $2.63B in circulation, but ∼$1.72B is on Ethereum versus only ∼$850M on XRPL. XRPL surpassed $1.03B in stablecoins in Q3, 98.1% of which was RLUSD, but this has not yet translated into demand for XRP.
Near-term outlook: as long as $1.25 doesn’t hold, there’s a risk of a retest of $0.93. If it gets back above $1.34, we can start talking about $1.55–1.66 again. No $3 without ETF inflows returning + genuine RLUSD adoption on XRPL.
Not financial advice, just an assessment as of today.
