Treasury cash projections suggest a potential Bitcoin liquidity window in December, between projected cash balance peaks of nearly $1.025 trillion in late November 2026 and late January 2027. The Treasury assumes a year-end cash balance of $850 billion. A decline in the Treasury’s account balance could increase bank reserves, but expected tax receipts and other changes to the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet could offset the liquidity relief. Actual cash flows and financing conditions must support this view, and there is no evidence yet that looser financing conditions will spur Bitcoin buying.
