#On-Chain Metrics Analysis
BTC: Bitcoin’s On-Chain Unrealized Profit Ratio, Excluding Coins Dormant for More Than Ten Years
By excluding coins that have not moved for more than ten years from both the supply in profit and the total supply, and applying a 7-day moving average, this metric identifies the 55%–60% deep turnover window near the end of a bull-market recovery. When the effective unrealized profit ratio falls back to 55%–60%, it typically signals a deep shakeout of profitable holders and a reset of coin cost basis before the recovery phase concludes. Excluding long-dormant or potentially lost early coins helps focus on the true profit-and-loss structure of currently tradable coins.
Current status · Below 55% · Deep turnover
The 7-day moving average of the current effective unrealized profit ratio is 54.50% (2026-11-04), down 4.13% over 7 days and 0.50 percentage points below the 55% deep-turnover threshold for modern cycles. This metric excludes 3.60M BTC in coins that have not moved for more than ten years (17.90% of the network’s total) from both the supply in profit and the total supply. Effective coins in profit total approximately 9.91M BTC, and the low over the past 365 days was 36.43% (2026-06-30). BTC’s live price is approximately $80,376 (price timestamp · 2026-11-05 11:23).
Historical reference: The 2012 cycle reached approximately 57.28% (2012-03-25, BTC at approximately $5, relative to the 60% threshold at the time); 2016 reached approximately 60.03% (2016-02-03, approximately $368); 2019 reached approximately 53.08% (2019-12-17, approximately $6,609, relative to the 55% threshold); and 2023 reached approximately 51.91% (2023-09-06, approximately $25,755). The first two cycles are assessed against the 60% threshold, and the latter two against the 55% threshold. The March 2020 black swan event is excluded to avoid distorting the 2019 sample. A low unrealized profit ratio can indicate that profitable holders and leverage have been flushed out, but cannot by itself confirm the start of a sustained bull run. If the metric remains below the threshold while price and liquidity fail to recover, continue validating against cost-basis levels, spot demand, and long-term holder behavior. For cycle research only; this is not investment advice.
More selected on-chain cycle indicators
Portal
https://welinkbtc-onchainmain.xyz/
Understand market cycles like a professional analyst
$BTC
BTC: Bitcoin’s On-Chain Unrealized Profit Ratio, Excluding Coins Dormant for More Than Ten Years
By excluding coins that have not moved for more than ten years from both the supply in profit and the total supply, and applying a 7-day moving average, this metric identifies the 55%–60% deep turnover window near the end of a bull-market recovery. When the effective unrealized profit ratio falls back to 55%–60%, it typically signals a deep shakeout of profitable holders and a reset of coin cost basis before the recovery phase concludes. Excluding long-dormant or potentially lost early coins helps focus on the true profit-and-loss structure of currently tradable coins.
Current status · Below 55% · Deep turnover
The 7-day moving average of the current effective unrealized profit ratio is 54.50% (2026-11-04), down 4.13% over 7 days and 0.50 percentage points below the 55% deep-turnover threshold for modern cycles. This metric excludes 3.60M BTC in coins that have not moved for more than ten years (17.90% of the network’s total) from both the supply in profit and the total supply. Effective coins in profit total approximately 9.91M BTC, and the low over the past 365 days was 36.43% (2026-06-30). BTC’s live price is approximately $80,376 (price timestamp · 2026-11-05 11:23).
Historical reference: The 2012 cycle reached approximately 57.28% (2012-03-25, BTC at approximately $5, relative to the 60% threshold at the time); 2016 reached approximately 60.03% (2016-02-03, approximately $368); 2019 reached approximately 53.08% (2019-12-17, approximately $6,609, relative to the 55% threshold); and 2023 reached approximately 51.91% (2023-09-06, approximately $25,755). The first two cycles are assessed against the 60% threshold, and the latter two against the 55% threshold. The March 2020 black swan event is excluded to avoid distorting the 2019 sample. A low unrealized profit ratio can indicate that profitable holders and leverage have been flushed out, but cannot by itself confirm the start of a sustained bull run. If the metric remains below the threshold while price and liquidity fail to recover, continue validating against cost-basis levels, spot demand, and long-term holder behavior. For cycle research only; this is not investment advice.
More selected on-chain cycle indicators
Portal
https://welinkbtc-onchainmain.xyz/
Understand market cycles like a professional analyst
$BTC
