Around $3.9 billion in trading volume, but open interest grew by only 94 BTC—$BTC futures touched a peak of 81,188 after rising from 79,317 at 23:00 last night. The current price is around 79,720, up about 2.1% over the past day, with futures trading volume at around $14 billion. During the hour-long short squeeze, open interest only edged up from about 98,890 BTC to 98,990 BTC, with almost no new longs opening. At midnight, it plunged straight back to about 97,100 BTC—the leverage started unwinding after the peak.
The share of retail accounts going long has steadily fallen from around 72.6% the night before last to about 58.6% now, clearing out much of the crowding. But whales’ long positions are still stuck at around 66.3%, leaving the two sides at odds. Funding rates have stayed around +0.01% all day. Just now, the 20:30 fifteen-minute candle plunged from 80,080 to 79,640, with about $460 million in volume, breaking through the consolidation floor above 80k that held during the day. In short: this move is a pullback after the short-squeeze peak, not a new base for longs, and it hasn’t yet been confirmed as the start of another waterfall decline.
The one-hour RSI is around 48, the 12-period moving average is around 80,269, and the lower Bollinger Band at around 79,931 has been breached. The lower Keltner Channel at around 79,464 is still below price. The KDJ J value has fallen to around 5.7, and the MACD histogram has turned negative.
I’m treating this move around 79,720 as noise from a pullback after the short squeeze, not the start of a new waterfall decline. Until open interest swells back above 98,500 BTC and the share of retail accounts going long climbs back to 65%, I’ll first watch the lower Keltner Channel at 79,464 on the downside. Any rebound will first run into resistance at the 12-period moving average at 80,269. These are my personal views.
$BTC #合约数据 #OpenInterest
The share of retail accounts going long has steadily fallen from around 72.6% the night before last to about 58.6% now, clearing out much of the crowding. But whales’ long positions are still stuck at around 66.3%, leaving the two sides at odds. Funding rates have stayed around +0.01% all day. Just now, the 20:30 fifteen-minute candle plunged from 80,080 to 79,640, with about $460 million in volume, breaking through the consolidation floor above 80k that held during the day. In short: this move is a pullback after the short-squeeze peak, not a new base for longs, and it hasn’t yet been confirmed as the start of another waterfall decline.
The one-hour RSI is around 48, the 12-period moving average is around 80,269, and the lower Bollinger Band at around 79,931 has been breached. The lower Keltner Channel at around 79,464 is still below price. The KDJ J value has fallen to around 5.7, and the MACD histogram has turned negative.
I’m treating this move around 79,720 as noise from a pullback after the short squeeze, not the start of a new waterfall decline. Until open interest swells back above 98,500 BTC and the share of retail accounts going long climbs back to 65%, I’ll first watch the lower Keltner Channel at 79,464 on the downside. Any rebound will first run into resistance at the 12-period moving average at 80,269. These are my personal views.
$BTC #合约数据 #OpenInterest
