The Polymarket market on when Predict.fun will launch its token has moved again.
The odds of a token launch before November 15 are now 51%;
before November 30, they’ve reached 88%;
and before the end of the year, December 31, they’ve climbed to 96—with the odds of a launch after that getting close to 100%.
Compared with before, the odds for November 15 have fallen from a higher level, while the odds for November 30 and year-end have risen.
The market is repricing: the likelihood of a launch before the 15th has been marked down, but the chances of it slipping past the end of November are also declining. The market now sees a launch by year-end as highly likely.
Binance Wallet has just announced that airdrop batches will be consolidated. The originally scheduled distribution dates remain unchanged, but the announcement explicitly says that if the launch is delayed, any undistributed batches will be consolidated into the first batch after trading opens.
The announcement itself leaves room for a delay, and the market has followed suit, lowering expectations for a November 15 launch.
There’s still no official announcement. But prediction markets have narrowed the launch window to between the end of November and the end of the year.
The odds of a token launch before November 15 are now 51%;
before November 30, they’ve reached 88%;
and before the end of the year, December 31, they’ve climbed to 96—with the odds of a launch after that getting close to 100%.
Compared with before, the odds for November 15 have fallen from a higher level, while the odds for November 30 and year-end have risen.
The market is repricing: the likelihood of a launch before the 15th has been marked down, but the chances of it slipping past the end of November are also declining. The market now sees a launch by year-end as highly likely.
Binance Wallet has just announced that airdrop batches will be consolidated. The originally scheduled distribution dates remain unchanged, but the announcement explicitly says that if the launch is delayed, any undistributed batches will be consolidated into the first batch after trading opens.
The announcement itself leaves room for a delay, and the market has followed suit, lowering expectations for a November 15 launch.
There’s still no official announcement. But prediction markets have narrowed the launch window to between the end of November and the end of the year.
