Since publishing my previous article, I’ve seen many prominent finance influencers get caught out in this latest downturn in memory stocks, with many still deeply underwater. So I’ve given my trading approach some serious thought and written down my reflections, hoping they’ll help guide my future trades and keep me from making the same mistakes again!
Micron topped out: June 25, 2026
SanDisk topped out: June 25, 2026
SK Hynix topped out: June 22, 2026
SOXL topped out: June 22, 2026
ChangXin Memory Technologies went public on July 27, while Micron, SanDisk, and SK Hynix hit their first bottom on July 29 and began to rebound. ChangXin Memory Technologies peaked on August 17 and was near its secondary peak on September 22, while Micron, SanDisk, SOXL, and SK Hynix reached their secondary peaks on September 22. A slightly lower third secondary peak also occurred on August 17.
From the above, it’s clear that since going public, ChangXin Technology has largely followed the trend in U.S.-listed memory stocks. SOXL, Micron, SanDisk, and SK Hynix have moved almost in lockstep and are tightly correlated.
SOXL had already fallen below the previous key support level of 91 and was down to around 65. Meanwhile, the other memory stocks—Micron, SanDisk, and SK Hynix—had not yet reached their previous lows from July 29. Based on the principle of following the broader market trend, SOXL should continue falling and drag these stocks down with it.
Yesterday, I was so confident about going long partly because of the boost from the news that the midterm election results were in—I thought that once the negative news was out of the way, it would be positive. I also looked only at SNDK, MU, and SK Hynix, which had all fallen near their previous lows, and thought a rebound seemed reasonable. But I forgot to check SOXL’s candlestick chart. It had actually already broken below its previous low. So, from the perspective of the broader market and big-money investors, bearish momentum here is very strong. I shouldn’t have gone long; I should have continued shorting instead.
As far as my own trades go, there was absolutely no need to open those long positions in SOXL, MU, and SNDK yesterday. I should have used the news-driven rally as an opportunity to short. I had just read *A Decade in a Dream* a few days earlier, and it gave a great example: when the overall trend in stocks (ideally, the trend in the sector or broader market) is bearish, any rally fueled by news is the best opportunity to go short.
But I still let the so-called “it’s fallen too much” retail-investor mindset cloud my judgment. To be fair, my understanding and experience are still limited, so I need to keep learning!
#美国中期选举：市场有哪些期待？
After learning about rolling positions, I made a huge mistake with position sizing!
